Archive for October, 2009

If you’re thinking about buying an apartment in Manhattan, this may be a great time to grab the gold ring.  Prices are much lower than the last few years – brokers are looking back to 2004-2005 for comparative prices (comps).  And mortgage rates are amazing – fixed-rate mortgages have been hovering in the 5% to 6% range, the lowest in the past 20 years except for a stray month here or there.  The experts don’t expect them to go lower and aren’t ready to predict when they’ll start going up again.

If you look at listings online, asking prices might still seem high. Sellers hate to let go of the peak value their apartments reached on paper in 2006 and 2007.  Be sure your buyers’ broker knows pre-bubble values and is an all-out negotiator for you.  Along with purchase price, negotiations can also include terms, asking the seller to pay some of the points, for example, or maintenance rebates or contributions to other closing costs . Think about finding a dedicated buyer’s broker.  He or she will negotiate harder for you and shouldn’t cost a dime, as broker’s fees should be built into the seller’s cost.

Start the process by making sure you can qualify to buy a coop or condo apartment:

  • Can you come up with at least 20% of the purchase price for a down payment?
  • Will your total housing costs (Mortgage + Maintenance–for a co-op — or Common Chargers + Taxes–for a condo) be at or under about 28 % of your income?  This ratio can be somewhat higher for a condo purchase.
  • Do you have an excellent credit score?  The best rates in NYC currently require a credit score of 760 or more. If you’re not there, note that a good mortgage broker can find fairly competitive rates with FICO scores of at least 720. If your score is below that, it’s a great idea to raise your score as much as you can before you start to shop.
  • Will you have the cash for closing costs and, what many co-op boards and/or lenders require, post closing cash reserves up to one or two years to cover mortgage, taxes, maintenance etc?

Why now?  The best answer can be found by asking recent buyers.  One new owner bought her one-bedroom co-op (with patio) in Soho in March. She had stopped looking late last fall because the prices were just out of reach.  But by early ’09 she could buy a lot more apartment than she’d expected, in a lot more locations. She ended up paying $490,000 a 15% reduction from the $569,000 asking price.  As the Time Out New York article points out in this case as well as two other examples, there are closing costs, some perhaps unexpected, beyond the simple purchase of the apartment.

Up-front costs

$98,000

Down payment on Soho apartment (20 percent of $490,000 contract price)

400

Appraisal

3,317

Bank, mortgage broker and closing costs (including credit report, loan origination, commitment and processing fees, flood certification and a document delivery fee)

2,125

Buyer’s attorney fee

1,500

Floor refinishing

1,349

Co-op fees (including building lawyer fee, first month’s maintenance and a not-yet-refunded $250 move-in deposit)

1,654

Interim interest charges (interest on the mortgage paid at closing)

1,250

Title fees (including bank lawyer fees, lien search and UCC filing)

500

Inspection (the seller tagged the sale “as is” before accepting the low offer, but still, “I wanted to know what I was getting into,” D’Agata says)

$110,095

Total
(We deleted $2,500 she’d put on another apartment where she didn’t get board approval.)

Monthly costs

$2,226

Mortgage payment (interest rate: 5.5 percent)

$29

Co-op insurance

$931

Maintenance charges and taxes

$3,185

Total

If you’re ready to make the move,  plan to live in your new place for at least three to five years and  have a comfortable cushion of post closing reserves, then it can make good financial sense to buy now.  Take a look around.  You may be pleasantly surprised at what you can afford.

Manhattan Rental Market Overview 3Q 2009

Miller Samuel, an independent appraisal firm,  and Prudential Douglas Elliman real estate today released the Manhattan Rental Market Overview.

The report tracks the 2549  apartment rentals in the third quarter of 2009 and compares the data to second quarter sales of this year as well as the same quarter sales of 2008 thus adjusting for seasonality.

Continued declines in rents may remove potential buyers who feel they are safer renting for a year or two while they wait for the bottom to occur in the residential sales market.

Highlights of the report include:

  • The average rental per square foot was $47.84, down 9.4% from $52.80 in the prior year quarter, but an increase of 8.3% from the prior quarter result of $44.16. This suggests some easing in the rate of decline since the same metric in the prior quarter fell 17.5% year over year.
  • There were 6,527 listings available at the end of the third quarter, 5.4% above the 6,191 listings in the same period last year, but 10.5 below the prior quarter total of 7,290 listings.
  • Downtown had the highest rental price per square foot of the four regions and saw a modest increase over the summer, averaging $45.87 per square foot, up 2.9% from the prior quarter.
  • One-bedroom apartments showed the largest gains over the summer, rising 6.3% to $46.62 per square foot from the prior quarter. Other than 2-bedroom apartments, which saw a 1% increase over the same period, all other types posted declines.

Every quarter I find it fun and interesting to read what the pundits have to say after the Manhattan Real Estate Market Reports are published. As you can see below,  the 3Q  Manhattan Market Overview created quite a lot of buzz. This report was prepared by Miller Samual Inc.  for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

I think the discussion of the 3Q market trends is best summarized in this special report podcast on The Housing Helix by the report’s creator Jonathan Miller .

Date

Publication

Title

Media

10/05/2009 Inman News N.Y. condo sales up sharply Newspaper
10/05/2009 Real Estate Channel Falling Manhattan Apartment and Condo Prices Drive Biggest Sales Gain in 13 Years, Report 7 Monitors Website
10/02/2009 Yahoo Finance 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Website
10/02/2009 WNYC Analyst: Manhattan Real Estate Market to Continue Slide Radio
10/02/2009 Newsday Manhattan apartment sales spike in Q3, prices vary Newspaper
10/02/2009 ForExYard.com Cheaper Manhattan apartments draw buyers-reports Website
10/02/2009 ABCNews.com Manhattan Apartment Sales Spike in 3Q; Prices Vary Website
10/02/2009 Earth Times 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Newspaper (electronic)
10/02/2009 The Business Insider Manhattan Condo Prices Down 10.3% In Q3 Website
10/02/2009 Bloomberg.com Manhattan Apartment Prices Drop for Second Quarter Website
10/02/2009 New York Post Housing rebound could be for real Newspaper
10/02/2009 New York Daily News Corner could be turned: Manhattan real estate sales ’stabilizing’ Newspaper
10/02/2009 CNNMoney Manhattan home prices flattening Website
10/02/2009 StreetInsider.com 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Website
10/02/2009 WebNewsWire.com 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Website
10/02/2009 Reuters 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Newswire
10/02/2009 Reuters Cheaper Manhattan apartments draw buyers Newswire
10/02/2009 Yacht Charters Magazine 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Magazine (electronic)
10/02/2009 The New York Times Manhattan Apartment Sales Bounced Back Over the Summer, but Not All the Way Newspaper
10/02/2009 CNBC.com 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Website
10/02/2009 WSJ.com Falling Apartment Prices Jolt Manhattan Market Website
10/02/2009 Crain’s new York Business Drop in apartment prices slows in 3Q Magazine
10/02/2009 The Real Deal Manhattan residential market reports bring good news, experts cautiously optimistic Magazine
10/02/2009 Curbed.com Market Reports: Manhattan Free Fall May Be Over Website
10/02/2009 Washington Examiner Manhattan apartment market soar in third quarter; still below year-ago levels Newspaper (electronic)
10/02/2009 Atlanta Business Chronicle 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Newspaper (electronic)
10/02/2009 Boston Business Journal 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Magazine
10/02/2009 Los Angeles Business 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Magazine
10/02/2009 Philadelphia Business Journal 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Magazine
10/02/2009 Portland Business Journal 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Magazine
10/02/2009 Sacramento Business Journal 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Magazine
10/02/2009 WAFB.com (Louisiana) 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Website
10/02/2009 KVBC.com (Las Vegas) 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Website
10/02/2009 KTVN.com (Reno, NV) 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Website
10/02/2009 Jacksonville Business Journal 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Magazine
10/02/2009 New York Magazine Third-Quarter Market Reports: Good News, Kind Of, Sort Of Magazine
10/02/2009 PR Newswire 3rd Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report Shows Housing Market is Turning Corner Newswire
10/02/2009 CBS Money Watch Justice Sotomayor: “Not Wise To Sell My Home” Website
10/02/2009 New York Daily News Is now the time to buy? Manhattan apartment sales jump 45% over last quarter as prices fall Newspaper
10/02/2009 Gothamist Manhattan Real Estate Might Be Rebounding… Or Not Website
         
10/02/2009 The New York Times Manhattan Apartment Sales Spike in 3Q; Prices Vary Newspaper

Mortgage rates include co-ops 10-2-2009 NY Times Mortgages

Economic Data Falls Short

After several weeks of economic announcements generally exceeding forecasts, weaker than expected labor and manufacturing data, along with comforting comments from Fed officials about inflation, helped mortgage markets this week. Reacting to the data, investors shifted funds out of the stock market and into bond markets, and mortgage rates ended the week at the lowest levels since May.

The Employment report, the biggest economic report of the month, was a little weaker than expected. Against a consensus forecast of -175K, the economy lost -263K jobs in September, and the revisions to prior months were negative as well. The Unemployment Rate was 9.8%, the highest level since June 1983. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, increased at a modest 2.5% annual rate. The length of the average work week declined.

In addition to the release of important economic data, several Fed officials delivered speeches during the week. What emerged was a good amount of disagreement over how soon they expect to need to tighten monetary policy. Some officials expressed concern that the time to begin to remove stimulus is close, while others see it as much farther down the road. There was a general consensus, though, that the Fed will be required to raise the fed funds rate while unemployment remains high. When the Fed eventually does indicate that rate hikes are imminent, the immediate reaction for mortgage rates is likely to be a move higher.

Mortgage trend information provided by Larry Weinstein Senior Loan Officers at Preferred Empire Mortgage Company, a sister company of Prudential Douglas Elliman. Chart: New York Times Mortgage Column 10-2-2009

3Q 09 Manhattan Residential Market Overview

Miller Samuel, an independent appraisal firm,  and Prudential Douglas Elliman real estate today released the Manhattan Market Overview.

The report tracks the 2230 sales of coop and condo apartments that closed in the third quarter of 2009 and compares the data to second quarter sales of this year as well as the same quarter sales of 2008 thus adjusting for seasonality.

  • There was a 45.6% jump in the number of sales this quarter to 2,230 sales from 1,532 sales in the prior quarter, which is well above seasonal trends. There were 16% fewer sales in the third quarter than the same period a year ago.
  • The average price per square foot of a Manhattan apartment was $996, down 16.5% from the prior year quarter price per square foot of $1,193 and 5.7% below the price per square foot of $1,056 in the prior quarter.
  • Listing inventory fell 4.6% to 8,389 units from 8,794 units in the prior year quarter and 10.5% from 9,378 in the prior quarter.
  • The average time it took to sell a property was 167 days, more than a month longer than the 134 days on market in the prior year quarter, but up a modest 5 days from the 162 days on market of the prior quarter.
  • Listing discount, which measures the spread between the listing price and the sales price at time of contract was 7.6% up from 2.6% in the prior year quarter, but down nominally from 7.8% in the prior quarter.

As the report indicates, “The number of sales tend to peak in the second quarter of each year. This is reflective of the spring selling season including demand generated from the early year Wall Street bonus season. However, the peak level of activity year to date occurred during the third quarter suggesting the seasonal housing cycle was pushed forward by three months. The unusually low level of sales activity in the first quarter of 2009 appeared to set the stage for a release of pentup demand later in the year”.

Turning the Corner Vs. Finding the bottom

“The summer surge in the number of sales was caused by a myriad of factors including mortgage rates at historic lows, the $8,000 first time buyer tax credit, increased affordability after the sharp correction in price levels, and continued evidence that the financial system was continuing to stabilize. In addition, a 24% jump in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past 6 months resulted in an improvement in consumer confidence. Still, unemployment remains elevated, employment in the financial services sector continues to decline and unusually restrictive mortgage underwriting remains in place. Therefore, this surge in the number of sales does not appear to indicate a housing market “bottom”, but rather provides some evidence that the housing market has “turned the corner.”