Archive for October, 2009
Manhattan Rental Market Overview 3Q 2009
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Miller Samuel, an independent appraisal firm, and Prudential Douglas Elliman real estate today released the Manhattan Rental Market Overview.
The report tracks the 2549 apartment rentals in the third quarter of 2009 and compares the data to second quarter sales of this year as well as the same quarter sales of 2008 thus adjusting for seasonality.
Continued declines in rents may remove potential buyers who feel they are safer renting for a year or two while they wait for the bottom to occur in the residential sales market.
Highlights of the report include:
- The average rental per square foot was $47.84, down 9.4% from $52.80 in the prior year quarter, but an increase of 8.3% from the prior quarter result of $44.16. This suggests some easing in the rate of decline since the same metric in the prior quarter fell 17.5% year over year.
- There were 6,527 listings available at the end of the third quarter, 5.4% above the 6,191 listings in the same period last year, but 10.5 below the prior quarter total of 7,290 listings.
- Downtown had the highest rental price per square foot of the four regions and saw a modest increase over the summer, averaging $45.87 per square foot, up 2.9% from the prior quarter.
- One-bedroom apartments showed the largest gains over the summer, rising 6.3% to $46.62 per square foot from the prior quarter. Other than 2-bedroom apartments, which saw a 1% increase over the same period, all other types posted declines.
Every quarter I find it fun and interesting to read what the pundits have to say after the Manhattan Real Estate Market Reports are published. As you can see below, the 3Q Manhattan Market Overview created quite a lot of buzz. This report was prepared by Miller Samual Inc. for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
I think the discussion of the 3Q market trends is best summarized in this special report podcast on The Housing Helix by the report’s creator Jonathan Miller .
| 10/02/2009 | The New York Times | Manhattan Apartment Sales Spike in 3Q; Prices Vary | Newspaper | |
Mortgage Market News And Rate Trends For The Week Ending October 2, 2009
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Economic Data Falls Short
After several weeks of economic announcements generally exceeding forecasts, weaker than expected labor and manufacturing data, along with comforting comments from Fed officials about inflation, helped mortgage markets this week. Reacting to the data, investors shifted funds out of the stock market and into bond markets, and mortgage rates ended the week at the lowest levels since May.
The Employment report, the biggest economic report of the month, was a little weaker than expected. Against a consensus forecast of -175K, the economy lost -263K jobs in September, and the revisions to prior months were negative as well. The Unemployment Rate was 9.8%, the highest level since June 1983. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, increased at a modest 2.5% annual rate. The length of the average work week declined.
In addition to the release of important economic data, several Fed officials delivered speeches during the week. What emerged was a good amount of disagreement over how soon they expect to need to tighten monetary policy. Some officials expressed concern that the time to begin to remove stimulus is close, while others see it as much farther down the road. There was a general consensus, though, that the Fed will be required to raise the fed funds rate while unemployment remains high. When the Fed eventually does indicate that rate hikes are imminent, the immediate reaction for mortgage rates is likely to be a move higher.
Mortgage trend information provided by Larry Weinstein Senior Loan Officers at Preferred Empire Mortgage Company, a sister company of Prudential Douglas Elliman. Chart: New York Times Mortgage Column 10-2-2009
Manhattan Coop and Condo Sales Report-Q3 2009
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Miller Samuel, an independent appraisal firm, and Prudential Douglas Elliman real estate today released the Manhattan Market Overview.
The report tracks the 2230 sales of coop and condo apartments that closed in the third quarter of 2009 and compares the data to second quarter sales of this year as well as the same quarter sales of 2008 thus adjusting for seasonality.
- There was a 45.6% jump in the number of sales this quarter to 2,230 sales from 1,532 sales in the prior quarter, which is well above seasonal trends. There were 16% fewer sales in the third quarter than the same period a year ago.
- The average price per square foot of a Manhattan apartment was $996, down 16.5% from the prior year quarter price per square foot of $1,193 and 5.7% below the price per square foot of $1,056 in the prior quarter.
- Listing inventory fell 4.6% to 8,389 units from 8,794 units in the prior year quarter and 10.5% from 9,378 in the prior quarter.
- The average time it took to sell a property was 167 days, more than a month longer than the 134 days on market in the prior year quarter, but up a modest 5 days from the 162 days on market of the prior quarter.
- Listing discount, which measures the spread between the listing price and the sales price at time of contract was 7.6% up from 2.6% in the prior year quarter, but down nominally from 7.8% in the prior quarter.
As the report indicates, “The number of sales tend to peak in the second quarter of each year. This is reflective of the spring selling season including demand generated from the early year Wall Street bonus season. However, the peak level of activity year to date occurred during the third quarter suggesting the seasonal housing cycle was pushed forward by three months. The unusually low level of sales activity in the first quarter of 2009 appeared to set the stage for a release of pentup demand later in the year”.
Turning the Corner Vs. Finding the bottom
“The summer surge in the number of sales was caused by a myriad of factors including mortgage rates at historic lows, the $8,000 first time buyer tax credit, increased affordability after the sharp correction in price levels, and continued evidence that the financial system was continuing to stabilize. In addition, a 24% jump in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past 6 months resulted in an improvement in consumer confidence. Still, unemployment remains elevated, employment in the financial services sector continues to decline and unusually restrictive mortgage underwriting remains in place. Therefore, this surge in the number of sales does not appear to indicate a housing market “bottom”, but rather provides some evidence that the housing market has “turned the corner.”