Mortgage Market Trends for week ending February 5, 2010


According to comments this last weekend by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner the risk that the economy will slip back into recession is lower now than at any time in the past year. While the probability of a “double-dip recession” may be unlikely,  Geithner believes the current recovery is likely to be very uneven. Some evidence of this was certainly present in last week’s ISM Indices. The services index managed to stay above 50, indicating a slight amount of growth in service industries. while the manufacturing index bolted to its highest level since 2004. While the Labor Department employment data did show signs of an improving labor market, other measures released last week were not as positive. Overall, we are at a point where mortgage rates might slip slightly, but the risk of a quick upward movement continues to grow.

This week has a bit less economic data than last week, but with Retail Sales data due, we could see rates moving upward, especially if sales come in stronger than most analvsts are predicting.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Bob Tedeschi January 28, 2010. Data provided by Jeff Carpenter, Director of Finance, GFI Mortgage Bankers, Inc.

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