Archive for April, 2010

Apr
26

Mortgage Market Trends for week ending April 23, 2010

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Mortgage rates moved link last week, even as economic data released during the week as slightly better than expected. Optimism that the economy may be getting some solid footing and moving from a technical recovery to a more broad-based recovery seems to be growing. The two largest areas that continue to hold out are the housing and employment markets. Last week, both new and existing home sales moved higher than expected. However, the expiring tax credit may be the reason for the underlying improvement. It will be a few months before we know for sure whether housing is really starting to improve, or is still struggling mightily.

This week is packed with important items for financial markets. We’ll get our first look at first quarter GDP numbers, two important consumer attitude surveys, and the Fed meets again. While rates are unlikely to be changed, analysts will scour the announcement looking for clues as to when rates could be lifted. The closer that event appears, the more likely mortgage rates will go up.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Bob Tedeschi April 21, 2010.  Data provided by Jeff Carpenter, Director of Finance, GFI Mortgage Bankers, Inc.

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Apr
19

Mortgage Market Trends for week ending April 16, 2010

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Last week’s economic data continued to be mostly positive, but mortgage rates slid downward. This manufacturing-lead recovery continues to maintain its pace, with Industrial Production numbers revealing solid gains for manufacturing and mining issues. While the housing and labor market will likely be a major drag on the recovery for some time, retail sales did tick upward more than expected.  As economically positive as most of last week’s news was, inflation at the consumer level of the economy is all but absent.  This should enable the Fed to maintain its stance regarding low interest rates for the foreseeable future.

With the Dow moving over 11,000 last week and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s remarks this weekend about the economy growing faster than expected, we could see some additional volatility in the bond market.  If we get encouraging news, especially if it includes positive news on new and existing home sales, we could see mortgage rates begin moving upward again.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Bob Tedeschi April 14, 2010.  Data provided by Jeff Carpenter, Director of Finance, GFI Mortgage Bankers, Inc.

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Apr
13

Mortgage Market Trends for week ending April 9, 2010

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Mortgage rates began heading upward last week as markets continued to digest the positive economic news from the previous week, and reacted to more positive news last week. The ISM Services Index rose sharply last week on the heels of a larger than expected increase in the ISM Manufacturing Index. While manufacturing has lead much of this current recovery, the increase in the Services Index reveals that we may be on the verge of seeing an even larger portion of the economy, services, moving into a sustainable growth situation

Without the support of the Fed’s program for buying mortgage-backed securities, next week could be one of the more volatile weeks we’ve seen in a while for mortgage rates. Many very important economic reports are due including Retail Sales and Industrial Production. If these two reports come in near expectations, it is very likely that mortgage rates will continue moving upward next week. However, a 0.0% or 0.1% change in the CPI could help temper that upward movement.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Bob Tedeschi April 7, 2010.  Data provided by Jeff Carpenter, Director of Finance, GFI Mortgage Bankers, Inc.

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Apr
08

Manhattan Residential Rental Market Overview Q1 2010

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Our Q1 Manhattan Rental Market Overview which was released today and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

  • Average rental price was $3,812, down 8% from $4,142 in the prior year quarter, but up 0.6% from $3,789 in the prior quarter.
  • Listing inventory fell 30.8% to 5,204 units in the first quarter from 7,522 in the prior year quarter, but was essentially unchanged from the 5,225 units in the prior quarter.
  • Lease renewals and rising rental activity has kept inventory stable year to date.
  • There were 2,663 new rentals, up 16.3% from 2,290 in the same period last year and up 8.4% from 2,456 rentals in the prior quarter.
  • The average rental listing took 86 days to lease, one day longer than the 87 days seen in the in same period last year, but was 10 days slower than the 76 days on market in the fourth quarter of 2009.

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Apr
05

Mortgage Market Trends for week ending April 2, 2010

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Last week saw mortgage rates move slightly upward as some more signs of economic recovery appeared.  The esteemed ISM Manufacturing Index surged to 59.6, the best reading since 2004, suggesting that manufacturing will not be tapering off as some analysts had feared.  Consumer Confidence also moved upward, but still remains low compared to better economic times.  The latest employment data also suggested better times ahead with 162,000 jobs created last month, and no change to the unemployment rate. Last week also marked the end of the Fed’s program of buying mortgage-backed securities.  While there was certainly no major impact to mortgage rates, it will take a few months to sort out whether the timing was good.  Without the Fed’s support, rates will be influenced more now by economic factors.  If the economy improves, rates will move upward.

This week is a fairly light week in terms or economic news and data. We’re likely to see some upward movement in rates as the market digests all the data from last week.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Bob Tedeschi March 31, 2010.  Data provided by Jeff Carpenter, Director of Finance, GFI Mortgage Bankers, Inc.

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Today we are released first quarter sales  for the Manhattan residential market.  Manhattan Market Overview Q1 2010 reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

  • There were approximately twice the number of sales in the first quarter of 2010 as the same period a year ago. The number of sales jumped 99.5% to 2,384 sales in the first quarter from 1,195 sales in the same period a year ago, but saw a 3.6% decline from 2,473 sales in the prior quarter.
  • There were 8,027 listings at the end of the first quarter, 23.1% below the 10,445 listings in the same period last year, but 17.2% higher than the prior quarter total of 6,851. This excludes an estimated 6,500 units of new development “shadow inventory”. Listing inventory levels are slightly above the 7,117 average level for the decade.
  • The median sales price of a Manhattan apartment was $868,000, 11% below the
  • $975,000 median sales price of the prior year quarter, but 7.2% above the $810,000 median sales price of the prior quarter. This price indicator has shown stability since the second quarter of 2009.
  • The average days on market—the number of days from the last list price change, if any, to the contract date—fell to 124 days from 170 days in the prior year quarter as properly-priced listings “moved to the head of the line” before a growing amount of over-priced inventory.
  • Listing discount contracted sharply as sellers were becoming more in sync with market conditions. The listing discount fell to 5.4% from 12.4% in the prior year quarter and from 12.8% in the prior quarter.

Categories : Market Reports
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Rejoice fashionistas, spring is definitely in the air! New stores, new concepts and new celebrations abound. It’s time for spring cleaning; make room for the fabulous new offerings coming soon to an avenue near you.

Faith Hope Consolo, Chairman, Retail Leasing and Sales Division
of Prudential Douglas Elliman recently published the shop ’til you drop Spring 2010 New York Retail Leasing Report