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Where to Eat on the Upper East Side
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Michael Lomonaco shares some of his Upper East Side Favorites
Pizza by the Slice: Italian Village
Pizza by the Pie: John’s Pizzeria
Cheap Burger: J.G. Melon
Fancy Burger: Jones Wood Foundry
Sandwich: 2nd Ave Deli
Coffee: Oren’s Daily Roast
Bagels: Tal Bagels
Chinese: Pig Heaven
Breakfast: E.A.T
Bar: Bemelmans Bar at the Carlyle
Ice Cream/Gelato: Sant Ambroeus
Falafel: Melange Food Fair
Late Night Eats: Cascabel Taqueria
Date night: Crown
Can’t-miss Neighborhood Spot: Sandoro’s
From Serious Eats NY
In the News
Posted by: | Comments3/30/12 In Manhattan Pizza War, Price of Slice Keeps Dropping: “In the amped-up war of commerce and 75-cent pizza on the Avenue of the Americas in Midtown, a perilous moment is approaching. Circumstances suggest that ravenous New Yorkers might soon witness 50-cent pizza, 25-cent pizza or, yes, free pizza.” Read the full article in the New York Times.
4/2/12 NY ranks as No. 1 global business center: “Thanks to investments in public transportation, cultural amenities and education, New York surpassed London, Paris and Tokyo as the city with the most global clout.” Read the full article at Crain’s NY Business.
Manhattan Residential Co-op & Condo Sales Market Report First Quarter 2012
Posted by: | CommentsToday, we released our First Quarter report for the Manhattan Residenital Co-op & Condo Sales Market. Manhattan Residential Co-op & Condo Sales Market Overview Q1 2012 reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
“Employment conditions have continued to slowly improve, inventory levels have remained modest, and new development stabilized, but tight mortgage underwriting conditions remain a challenge to the market.”
- Median sales price was $775,000, 0.9% below $782,071 in the prior year quarter. Price per square foot increased 6%, and average sales price increased 0.8% over the same period.
- The S&P’s downgrade of US debt, paired with the European debt crisis, Wall Street bonus concerns, and large swings in the stock market indices all contributed to the market’s slowed pace leading into the first quarter. As a result, the number of sales slipped 3.5% to 2,311 from 2,394 in the prior year quarter.
- Active listing inventory slipped 0.6% to 7,560 in the first quarter from 7,605 in the prior year quarter, but remained consistent with the 7,478 quarterly average over the past ten years.
- Days on market—the number of days between the last price change, if any, and the contract date—saw a 25-day increase to 152 days from 127 days as older inventory was sold off.
- Listing discount—the percent difference between the list price at time of sale to the sales price—increased to 6.3% from 4.5% in the same period last year.
Mortgage Market Trends for Month ending March 31, 2012
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MARKET RECAP
One week’s worth of data does not a trend make. We say that because of renewed concern the housing rally is set to peter out because of a burst of sub-par news.
The news on lower existing and new home sales was disappointing, to be sure, but hardly a foreboding omen. The news on pending home sales, which tracks contract signings for existing homes, wasn’t all that bad either. The index was down 0.5% in February, but the index has been up for the most part over the past six months. Sometimes a little perspective is needed.
Pessimism was further heightened by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, which showed another price decline. Month-over-month, the average price declined 0.5 percent in January. Year-over-year, the average price is down 3.8 percent.
The fear properties in various stages of foreclosure and delinquency will continue to roil the market is on the rise. We are not terribly concerned though; the attenuating factor being foreclosed and delinquent properties are a well-vetted, well-understood variable. More important, it’s an improving variable. Data from CoreLogic show that faster REO-clearing rates and improving employment and low mortgage lending rates point to a sustained housing-market recovery.
In our opinion, frustratingly low appraisals and too-stringent lending standards are more pressing issues for many buyers and sellers. Loosening the tethers on both, and particularly the latter, would go a long way toward keeping the recovery on course.
A strong economy would also go a long way toward sustaining the recovery. The good news is the economy continues to grow. The final number on gross domestic product shows that the economy grew 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011. This latest reported quarter was much stronger than the 1.8 percent growth reported in the third quarter of 2011.
The employment data support the notion the economy is growing. Yes, we are aware that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently warned that improvements in the labor market may not be sustained, but we think otherwise nonetheless: Job creation has accelerated in recent months. Concurrently, jobless claims have decelerated. In fact, the latest report on weekly jobless claims shows the four-week moving average falling to its lowest level in four years.
Of course, the state of the economy always impacts credit markets. Interest rates dropped this past week when Bernanke stated he thought the economy has yet to reach full-recovery mode. Investors equivocated and money moved from stocks and commodities into U.S. Treasury securities. The mortgage market responded in kind, and we saw lending rates drop five to 10 basis points across most offerings.
We can’t say for sure how long rates will stay down. We’ve seen a marked increase in volatility in lending rates in March. We think volatility will remain high going forward, which is why we feel impelled to say that the risk of waiting for lower lending rates outweighs the benefit of substantially lower lending rates materializing.
The Most Persuasive Sign it’s Time to Lock and Load
Economist Hyman Minsky is the author of a persuasive short monograph titled “The Financial Instability Hypothesis.” Minsky basically states that the longer a market appears stable, the less stable it actually is because of excessive speculation and leveraging of that market.
We’ve been in a 31-year bull market in U.S. Treasury securities. That is, long-term real yields – yields adjusted for inflation – have been trending down since the early 1980s. A recent analysis by Credit Suisse shows that real rates on long-term Treasury securities are down to 50 basis points, or 0.5%.
Such a low rate doesn’t compensate for opportunity cost and time value. In fact, the real interest rate is so low today, even the early 1900s can’t boast of such low rates.
We’ve been in a very long bull market in bonds. Long sustained trends tend to lull participants into complacency. In turn, complacency tends to ratchet up the use of leverage. We don’t know how much leverage there is behind this lending market, but we suspect more than there was 30 years ago Carry trade – borrowing short term to buy long-term credit instruments – has been a very lucrative, easy-money trade over the past decade.
The point is, 31 years is a long time, record lows don’t last forever, and neither does easy money. If Minsky’s hypothesis holds, the odds interest rates could rise in the near future is much higher than many borrowers think.
Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Vickie Elmer April 1, 2012. Data and Commentary provided by Fred Ashe, from DE Capital Mortgage.
Survey Says: Sellers Getting Real about Real Estate
Posted by: | CommentsA new survey of 600 Real Estate Professionals conducted by Coldwell Banker reveals that home sellers are more apt to price their home in line with market pressures. It also noted other changes in buyer preferences. The survey also showed what today’s buyers are looking for in a new home.
- 51% of sellers are more willing to price their property competitively than this time last year
- 45 % said sellers are more willing to change the appearance of their homes to entice buyers
- 94% said sellers are clearing clutter and painting or making minor repairs
- 78% said sellers are de-personalizing the home
- 59% said sellers are willing to allow staging with new decorations or furniture
Buyers are going back to the basics valuing new or updated kitchens, bathrooms and open floor plans. Motivating buyers are growing families and job relocation.
Source: “Survey Reveals Sellers More Willing to Price Competitively,” RISMedia
New York City Real Property Market Value 2012
Posted by: | CommentsAccording to the New York City Department of Finance, the market value of real property is $845.4 billion, an increase of 3.8 percent compared to last year.
Manhattan rental apartment buildings’ market value increased 15 percent, cooperative apartment buildings increased 9.5 percent and condominium units 7.1 percent compared to a year ago.
In Brooklyn, rental apartment buildings increased 3.9 percent, cooperative apartment buildings 1.6 percent and condominium units 1.2 percent compared to 2011.
Compared to the peak of the market in 2007, the market value of Manhattan rental apartment and cooperative apartment buildings has increased 22.5 percent, and condominium units increased 48.2 percent according to the City of New York.
In Brooklyn, the market value of rental buildings was up 3.5 percent, cooperative apartments 18.4 percent.
These market value increases have resulted in a 40 percent increase in real property taxes since the peak of the market in 2008.
From MIke Slattery, Senior Vice President, REBNY Research Department
In the News
Posted by: | Comments3/13/12 Luxury Manhattan sales market set to slip following Wall Street’s compensation declines: ”
The high-end Manhattan real estate that has propped up an otherwise stagnant sales market, is likely to begin a decline of its own in 2013 and 2014. According to data from the New York State Comptroller’s office and Miller Samuel CEO Jonathan Miller cited by Bloomberg News, the top 10 percent of the Manhattan condominium and co-op market tends to follow the pattern set by Wall Street bonuses two years earlier.” Get more informaiton at TheRealDeal.com
3/14/12 Rent Study Finds NYC Cheaper Than Long Island, New Jersey: “In what will be a surprise to many New Yorkers, the city isn’t the most expensive place in the country to rent a modest two-bedroom apartment, a new report released has found. In fact, it’s not even the most expensive rental market in the region.” Read the full article in the Wall Street Journal
3/15/12 Pension Reform Announced: “Governor Andrew M. Cuomo, Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos today announced the passage of a sweeping pension reform plan that will save state and local governments more than $80 billion over the next 30 years. New York City taxpayer savings will account for $21 billion of this savings. Our legislative leaders have shown extraordinary determination and deserve immense credit for addressing the critical fiscal challenges facing state and local government.” Read the Governor’s Press Release and Mayor Bloomberg’s Statement
3/15/12 NY State lawmakers to allow casino gambling: “New York state lawmakers have agreed to legalize public casinos and will amend the state constitution to allow seven new casinos to operate, lawmakers said on Wednesday.” Read the full article at Reuters.com
So You Want to Sell Your Upper East Side Apartment
Posted by: | CommentsYou’re ready for a change. You want to sell your apartment… or Do you? Carefully consider these questions before you take the plunge.
1) Is the apartment ready to Sell?
Most properties could use a little sprucing up. Some apartments need some renovation . Listing the apartment before it is in ‘show perfect’ condition can cost you days on the market and/or sales price
2) Are you motivated?
- Will you be flexible enough to allow the property to be shown when a buyer wants to see it?
- Will you trust your broker’s judgment on proper pricing?
- Are you open to advice on staging and presenting the property to sell?
3) Do you have the authority and capacity to sell the property?
Make sure the title/proprietary lease is clear and under your management. For example many coop Board have special requirements when an estate owns the property. In the case of Divorce, will your spouse need to agree to the sale? Rely on your team broker, attorney, accountant financial advisor to guide you.
A ”NO” answer to any one of these questions may mean you are not ready to sell and could cost you time and money.
In the News
Posted by: | Comments3/5/12 Pre-K Guide: Everything You Need to Know to Get Your Child a Seat: Thousands of families apply to pre-Kindergarten each year, seeking an experience for their child that is more educational than daycare but not as expensive as private school. But demand is so high that there aren’t enough seats to go around, which means that the most sought-after programs remain harder to get into than an Ivy League college. Read the artlicle at DNAinfo.com
3/6/12 NYC sees biggest building permit rise since crash: Number of permits for demolition work soars nearly 37% in the first two months of year, while the number of permits to put up new buildings jumps almost 43%. Levels are still well below pre-2008 peaks. Read more about it at Crain’s New York.
3//8/12 Apartment bargains melted away in warm Feb.: Unseasonable temperatures bring out more customers and landlords respond by cutting concessions and even hiking some rents. A “disappointi9ng season” for tenants seen. Read the full article at Crain’s New York
3/8/12 Stunning gains for city economy: The city economy grew nearly twice as fast in 2011 as initially thought, according to data released Thursday, and jobs boomed in January. Read the article at Crain’s New York.
3/9/12 Crumbling East 81st Street Pedestrian Bridge Set for Makeover: Months after cutting the ribbon on a stainless steel pedestrian bridge at East 78th Street, the city is moving forward with tackling the next decaying walkway connecting the neighborhood to the East River waterfront. Read the article at DNAinfo.com
Need Another Room?
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You’ve found a great apartment, in the right location, a great price, in a terrific building; in fact it’s almost perfect. The problem is you need an extra room, for the baby, watching late night TV while your spouse sleeps or perhaps a home office. Now what?
The answer could be a temporary wall to carve out the extra space. But it needs to be done properly and meet certain safety standards. And you may need permission from building management or the Board.
Room Dividers NY, 1Wall 2 Rooms, and All Week Walls are a few of the many companies the city install pressurized walls. These so–called pressurized walls are made using only a tension system can accommodate most any size or shape of room, without leaving behind screws or adhesive residue when they are removed, but look and feel like ‘real’ walls. They can be attractive and functional, offering the privacy or separation needed for an office, TV room or extra bedroom. You may even be able to mount your flat-panel TV to one. When the wall is no longer needed, it can be removed.
New York City is aggressively enforcing a long-standing but largely ignored code requiring approval from the Department of Buildings for permanent walls. According to the City Building Department, those wishing to divide a space need to rely on bookshelves or partial walls that don’t reach the ceiling. Temporary walls must not block exit routes or interfere with ventilation or sprinkler systems, as well as meet minimum room size requirements.
This new enforcement stems from a fatal fire in 2005 in the Bronx and subsequent criminal prosecution of the landlords and two tenants on manslaughter charges. According to the city, the illegal partitions put up by the tenants had disoriented the firefighters and lead to their deaths.
Safety is of paramount importance. Egress routes, maximum travel distances as called out by the building code as well as sprinkler coverage, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors should be considered before attempting to place a temporary wall.
Inspired by New York Times Article by Marc Santora.
How’s the Market?
Posted by: | CommentsWhile Quarterly Sales Reports show closed activity for the previous quarter, monthly Contract Signed reports are the ‘crystal ball’ of closed sales to come. Granted all contracts signed for any given month may not close in the next month, and some may not close at all but most (over 95%) will become closed sales which will become part of the next Quarterly Sales Report.
In the following charts and graphs you can see how the market stacks up against last month and this month last year.
Mortgage Market Trends for Month ending February 29, 2012
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MARKET RECAP
Home sales have developed a positive up trend in the past six months, and it appears that trend will be sustained at least into the near future.
The pending home sales index rose 2.0 percent in January to hit 97, the highest reading in nearly two years. New contract signings were particularly strong in the South, which posted an impressive 10.5-percent gain. The good is that the rest of the country isn’t lagging far behind: national year-over-year contracts are up 8.0 percent.
Lower prices are an obvious factor in driving sales volume. While lower prices drive demand, they also reduce supply. Home supply has been dropping nationally for some time now, though concrete numbers are tough to gauge given the uncertainty over the hidden inventory of foreclosed properties. The estimates we’ve seen on these shadow homes range between two million to four million nationally.
Whatever the actual numbers are on distressed properties, it appears many markets have already reached peak saturation, which means levels should begin falling. According to analysts at Clear Capital, Atlanta and Tuscon, Ariz. are two regions likely to see a drop in REO properties during the year. We wouldn’t be surprised to see similar prognostications forthcoming for Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Central California.
The fact markets are reaching an REO saturation point is one sign that housing is reaching a tipping point. Affordability is another. In many parts of the country, affordability is at a multi-decade high.
We’ve been preaching over the past year that residential real estate is the investment for the next decade. We stand by our exhortations. Unfortunately, many potential buyers still feel otherwise. They are weary of catching a falling knife; that is, buying a property that will continue to depreciate.
Falling knives were a very real concern three years ago; that’s not the case today. Yes, home prices nationally could continue to fall, but you always have to look past national numbers to the local market – many of which are rebounding.
Mortgage rates are another reason we like real estate. Rates continue to skim along a 60-year low. But the economy is improving – GDP posted a better-than-expected annual 3.0-percent growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2011. What’s more, job growth has accelerated and unemployment has dropped. In other words, rates are unlikely to go much lower.
Costs associated with mortgages could go higher, though. The buzz on the new HARP 2.0 is growing louder and attracting many underwater borrowers keen to refinance. The buzz will grow even louder over the next month as interest intensifies.
Rising loan demand tilts the table toward lenders, so we think its prudent for potential buyers to not wait and to take advantage of what remains a very low-cost mortgage financing market.
The Foreclosures-to-Rental Solution
We tend to become more cautious when a theme grips the market. Residential rental property is the hottest theme these days. Even the great Warren Buffett is bullish on rentals, declaring that he would buy a couple hundred thousand single-family homes and rent them, if only he had a way to manage them.
Another prominent supporter of rentals, Lewis Ranieri, the co-inventor of the mortgage-backed security, lays out the case in a research paper for using federal entities to support converting foreclosed properties into rentals. According to Ranieri, his foreclosure-to-rental model can be developed in “most every market in the United States,” and thus help clear the distressed-housing overhang.
We see a few unintended consequences, though. When markets don’t develop organically, there tends to be inefficiency – you get too much or too little of something. Just look at housing for the past six years. The market was incentivized for more home ownership, and we got too much of it.
Single-family rental properties are fine, to be sure, but large swaths of single-family rentals might not be. Rents are rising, but they don’t always rise. Rents impacted capitalization rates. If rents drop, so will capitalization rates and property values. In addition, renters don’t care for properties as well as owners. Could a higher percentage of neglected properties translate into more downward price pressure for owners?
All we’re saying is that before we ask for something we need to be sure we really want it; unintended consequences can be very costly in the long run.
Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Vickie Elmer March 1, 2012. Data and Commentary provided by Fred Ashe, from DE Capital Mortgage.
The Faith Report – Winter 2012 Warming Up in Winter
Posted by: | CommentsWe may be in the depths of winter, but we’re already at the height of activity for new stores, restaurants and hotels. New York City remains the center of the world for designers and diners, with a number of new hotels readying to house our many visitors (50 million plus last year). From new or relocating designers to coffee shops to luxury condotels, it’s still hot in the city! ~ by Faith Hope Consolo
The end of a quarter brings a blizzard of Residential Sales and Rental Market Reports; followed by a spurt of press coverage spinning and analyzing the reports. But here’s a report that’s different
The Faith Report reads like a who’s who of luxury retailers.
From Madison Avenue to 5th Avenue and the Upper East Side, across Central Park on the Upper West Side down to Union Square, the West Village, Soho, Nolita, Tribeca and to the Lower East Side, the Faith Report alerts you to the newest digs for your favorite designers and other trend-setting retailers.
New York Retail Leasing Activity Report created by Faith Consolo Chairman of Prudential Douglas Elliman’s Leasing and Sales Division.
