Archive for Market Reports
Manhattan 10-Year Townhouse Sales Trend Analyis 2000-2009
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Recently we reported the Manhattan 10-Year Townhouse Market Report for 2000-2009. The 10-year sales trend analysis summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
- There were 402 Manhattan townhouses listed for sale at the end of 2009, 24.2% below the 530 listings available in 2008. Listing inventory was similar to the levels seen ten years ago reflecting the fixed nature of turn-of-the-century housing stock.
- The 2009 median sales price of a Manhattan townhouse—defined as a 1-5 family residence that can be delivered vacant—fell 31.9% from the record set in 2008 to $3,400,000 from $4,995,000.
- There were 149 townhouse sales in 2009, down 1.3% from 151 sales in the prior year. The average annual number of sales over the past decade was 249 sales, indicating that the number of sales over the past two years have been below trend levels.
- The listing discount, the amount buyers and sellers have to move to agree on price, expanded to 15.3% in 2009 from 6.9% in the prior year.
- The days on market for townhouse properties was 142 days in 2009, faster than the 155 days in 2008.
- The decline in market conditions left more sellers “chasing the market” when setting list prices
Manhattan 2000-2009 Residential Sales and Market Anlaysis
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Approximately 92,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,500 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas have been presented with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix that compare 2009 to the prior year (2008) and prior decade (2000).
- After setting records in 2008, all three price indicators declined in 2009. This is the first time that any of the three price indicators have posted year-over-year declines since 1996.
- The 2009 median sales price of a Manhattan apartment was $850,000, down 11% from the record set in 2008 at $955,000
- Manhattan housing prices have doubled over the past decade. Price per square foot increased 105.6% to $1,073 from $522 in 2000.
- There were 7,430 sales in 2009, 27.9% fewer than were sold in 2008. However, the release of pent-up demand from the first half of 2009 caused the second half to see a surge in sales activity.
- The annualized pace of sales in the second half of 2009 was 9,400 units, higher than the 9,178 average annual number of sales over the last decade.
- There were 6,851 listings on the market at the end of 2009, 24.6% less than 9,081 listings in 2008, which was the highest level of inventory in the past decade. The 2009 inventory level was in line with the 6,860 average annual inventory level since 2000.
- Over the past decade, the Manhattan condo market has surpassed the co-op market in sales, beginning with a 40% market share and ending with a 54% market share. The gain was primarily due to the addition of new development sales to the housing stock.
The 2000-2009 Manhattan Market Report relaeased today and summarized above was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
Brooklyn Market Overview Q4 2009
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Today we are released fourth quarter sales for the Brooklyn residential market. Brooklyn Market Overview Q4 2009 reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
“Sales activity was elevated as purchasers sought to take advantage of improved affordability brought on by low mortgage rates, the federal tax credit and lower housing prices.”
- There were 2,093 sales in the fourth quarter, 13.4% higher than 1,846 units in the same period last year and 13.3% higher than 1,847 units in the prior quarter.
- As a result of increased sales activity, inventory declined over the same period. There were 5,439 listings available at the end of the fourth quarter, 10% below the 6,042 listings available at the end of the same period a year ago and 2.9% below the 5,600 units available at the end of the prior quarter.
- The median sales price of a Brooklyn property was $447,174 in the fourth quarter, down 8.7%
- from $490,000 in the prior year quarter and down 6.1% from $476,000 in the prior quarter.
- Days on market expanded by a month to 163 days, from 133 days in the same period last year, but was essentially unchanged from 165 days in the prior quarter.
- Listing discount—the percent spread between the list price at the time of contract and the contract price—was 6%, up from 4% in the prior year quarter and up from 5.6% in the prior quarter.
Queens Market Overview Q4 2009
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Today we are released fourth quarter sales for the Queens residential market. The Queens Market Overview Q4 2009 reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
“The fourth quarter 2009 Queens market experienced a surge in sales activity, with 55.6% more sales than during the same period a year ago. Consumers took advantage of the federal tax credit, low mortgage rates and more affordable prices. As a result of the increase in sales, listing inventory has fallen 10.6% and is at its lowest level in three years.”
- There were 4,260 sales in the fourth quarter, 55.6% more than the 2,737 sales of the prior year quarter and 52.7% more than the 2,789 sales in the prior quarter.
- Listing inventory is at its lowest level in three years. There were 8,778 properties listed for sale at the end of the fourth quarter, 10.6% below the 9,822 units listed for sale in the prior year quarter and 10.4% below the 9,797 units listed in the prior quarter.
- Prices continue to slip. Median sale price was $350,000, 7.9% below the $380,000 median sales price of the prior year quarter and 3.3% below the $362,000 median sales price of the prior quarter.
- The average days on market was 104 days, or two weeks longer than the 90 days on market in the prior year quarter.
- Listing discount, the spread between the last list price and contract price, fell to 6.1% in the fourth quarter, down from 8.7% in the prior year quarter and unchanged from the prior quarter.
Q4 Manhattan Residential Rental Report
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Recently the industry has reported data on fourth quarter rentals for the Manhattan residential market. The Q4 Manhattan Rental Market Overview reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
- Average rental price declined 4.3% to $3,789 from $3,958 the same period last year but up 0.8% from $3,759 the prior quarter.
- Rental price per square foot declined 4.6% to $47.02 per square foot from $49.30 per square foot during the same period last year, and down 1.7% from $47.84 per square foot in the prior quarter.
- Median rental price declined 9.4% to $2,900 from $3,200 in the same period last year and down 1.7% from $2,950 in the prior quarter.
- Number of rentals surged 47.5% to 2,456 units from 1,665 units in the prior year quarter.
- Listing inventory fell 21.3% to 5,225 units from 6,640 units in the prior year quarter.
- Days on market were 76 days, down from 97 days this time last year.
- Listing discount was 6.5%, down from 6.9% in the same period last year.
The reports do not account for the incentives (concessions) that tenants are frequently offered in the current market, like months of free rent or waived brokers’ fees. It is worth noting that that if those factors had been taken into consideration, rents could appear considerably lower. Perhaps as high as 10% lower.
Experts remain cautiously optimistic about this year as the unemployment rate, which has a huge impact on the rental market, remains high. ”We are looking for more of the same in the first half of 2010–stable activity and pricing,” Mr. Miller said.
Jonathan Miller’s pod cast discussing the Q4 Manhattan Market Overview can be heard here.
In addition, reporting and analysis of the Q4 Rental Market Survey were consolidated on the Miller Samuel website and shown below.
01/14/2010 PR Newswire Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
01/14/2010 Earth Times Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
01/14/2010 Business Week Manhattan Apartment Rents Drop 9.4% as City Job Losses Mount
01/14/2010 Bloomberg.com Manhattan Apartment Rents Drop 9.4% as City Job Losses Mount
01/14/2010 TheStreet.com Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
01/14/2010 The Real Deal Manhattan rental deals up in 4Q: reports
01/14/2010 Yahoo Finance Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
01/14/2010 Fox Business Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
In addition to the Prudential Douglas Elliman report, some of the above articles refer to the Citi Habitats Q4 Market report.
Q4 2009 Manhattan Residential Sales Market Report
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Recently the industry has reported Q4 sales for the Manhattan residential market. The Manhattan Market Overview reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
- Q4 continues the surge of activity seen in Q3 with 2473 sales up 10.9% from 2230 last quarter and up 8.4% from 2282 prior year quarter.
- By far, the most activity and shortest Days On Market were seen in the under $1 million category
- Inventroy Down 18.3% from last quarter and down 24.6% from prior year quarter
- Average sales price per square foot up 5.5% over last quarter ($1051/sf) but down 11.2% over the prior year quarter ($1183/sf)
- Median sales price $810 down 4.7% over last quarter and down 10% from $900 in the prior year quarter.
- Days on Market up 28.3% from last year quarter
- Inventory down 24.6% form last year quarter
Reporting and analysis of the Q4Market Survey were consolidated on the Miller Samuel website and shown below.
01/07/2010 -NuWire Investor- Manhattan Property Prices Plummet In Fourth Quarter
01/07/2010 -Before it’s News- Manhattan Residential Market Slowly Clambering Out of Hole
01/07/2010 -Epoch Times- Manhattan Residential Market Slowly Clambering Out of Hole
01/06/2010 -PropertyWire- Reports reveal the devastating effect of the Wall Street decline on apartment prices in Manhattan
01/05/2010 -Earth Times- 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report – Prepared by Miller Samuel
01/05/2010 -PR Newswire- 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report – Prepared by Miller Samuel
01/05/2010 – Reuters- Plunging home prices pull Manhattan buyers back in
01/05/2010 -ABCNews.com- Manhattan Home Sales Rise in 4Q, but Prices Vary
01/05/2010 -Bloomberg.com- Manhattan Apartment Prices Fall as New York Loses Finance Jobs
01/05/2010 -TheStreet.com- 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report – Prepared By Miller Samuel
01/05/2010 -The Real Deal- Manhattan home sales market on the mend, but is a double-dip ahead?
01/05/2010 -Fox Business- 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report – Prepared by Miller Samuel
01/05/2010 -Crain’s New York Business- Manhattan residential market ends year on up note 01/05/2010- New York Magazine- Manhattan Real Estate: Sales Recovering and Inventory Shrinking
01/05/2010 –Business Week- Manhattan Apartment Prices Fall as New York Loses Finance Jobs
01/05/2010 -1010Wins.com- Manhattan Home Sales Rise in 4Q, but Prices Vary Website
01/05/2010 -CNNMoney.com- Will bonuses save the day for Manhattan real estate?
01/05/2010 -The New York Times- Manhattan Home Sales Rise in 4Q, but Prices Vary 01/05/2010 -New York Post- Manhattan housing slide slows
01/05/2010 -Air America Beta- Manhattan home sales rise in 4Q, but prices vary
01/05/2010 -Inman News- Manhattan closings up, prices down
01/05/2010 Top News Fall in Prices Recorded by Manhattan Residential Real Estate
01/05/2010 -The Money Times- Manhattan records slide in home prices Website
01/05/2010 -WNYC.com- 2009: A Buyer’s Market For Manhattan Real Estate Website
01/05/2010 -Curbed.com- State o’ the Market Reports: The Manhattan Bleeding Slows!
01/05/2010 -Daily News- Housing on rebound: Manhattan condo, co-op sales climb at end of last year
01/05/2010 -Scottrade- 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Residential Market Report – Prepared by Miller Samuel
01/04/2010 -The New York Times Sales Spur Optimism in Manhattan Real Estate
01/04/2010 The Seattle Times Manhattan home sales rise in 4Q, but prices vary
In addition to the Prudential Douglas Elliman report, some of the articles above mention these other 4Q market reports:
Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book For New York
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On Wednesday December 2nd the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book for the Second District–New York. Below are the report’s highlights regarding New York City.
- The Second District’s economy has shown further signs of improvement since the last report, though the labor market remains soft.
- Residential real estate markets have been mixed since the last report, but generally weaker, especially at the high end of the market; New York City’s sales and rental markets have been particularly weak.
- New York City’s housing market has continued to weaken: while sales activity for existing apartments has rebounded from depressed levels, sales of new units remain very sluggish. Selling prices for existing units are reported to be down roughly 25 percent from a year earlier, with even steeper declines at the high end
- New York City’s rental market also continues to weaken, with contract rents in Manhattan falling roughly 10 percent over the past 12 months; moreover, when concessions are factored in, the decline in effective rents has been a good deal steeper.
- There are signs of a pickup in tourism activity in New York City.
- Consumer confidence among New York State residents edged down in both September and October, after reaching its highest level in more than a year in August.
- Tourism activity in New York City has picked up since the last report
- Manhattan hotels report that occupancy rates exceeded year-earlier levels in both September and October, for the first time in more than a year
- Hotel room rates climbed by substantially more than the seasonal norm in September and October, though they are still down 15-20 percent from last year.
- Broadway theaters report a pronounced pickup in attendance as well as revenue
Yankees And Bronx Real Estate
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Yankees Win! NY Daily News photo
I’m not really a raving baseball fan but as long as Boston doesn’t win, I’m OK with whoever does.
John Massengale an architect and urban planner posted this brief history:
“The boss of the Yankees, George Steinbrenner, complained about parking and a perception of crime, and said he might move his team if the city didn’t build a new stadium for them. The then Mayor of the city, Rudolph Giuliani, proposed building a new stadium over a railyard on the west side of Manhattan, at a cost of $1,000,000,000.00.
The Bronx Borough President, the Honorable Fernando Ferrer, wanted to keep the Yankees in the Bronx by building what he called the Yankee Village.”
The rest is history as they say.
“The Yankees won. The world is right again,” team president Randy Levine said.
I was curious about how housing prices were doing in the Bronx since the construction of the new stadium so I visited Trulia’s Bronx Real Estate Overview
Average price per square foot for Bronx NY was $201, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last year. The median sales price for homes in Bronx NY for Jul 09 to Sep 09 was $390,000 based on 443 home sales. Compared to the same period one year ago, the median home sales price decreased 11.9%, or $52,500, and the number of home sales decreased 8.8%.
There are currently 3,048 resale and new homes in Bronx on Trulia, including 43 open houses, as well as 1,390 homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process. The average listing price for homes for sale in Bronx NY was $463,916 for the week ending Oct 28, which represents an increase of 0.7%, or $3,009, compared to the prior week. Popular neighborhoods in Bronx include Riverdale and Throgs Neck – Edgewater Park, with average listing prices of $654,112 and $456,530.
Trulia’s Heat Map and neighborhood by neighborhood residential sales details here.
Home Prices Continue to Improve While Consumer Confidence Declines
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All real estate is local.
As I previously discussed here, the S&P/Case-Shiller indices are virtually useless for tracking Manhattan residential sales. Case-Shiller does not include sales of co-op and condo apartments even though those property types account for 99% of what is sold in Manhattan.
The data through August 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices show that the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s reading. This marks approximately seven months of improved readings in these statistics, beginning in early 2009.
This perceived improvement of real estate prices, if you can call smaller declines an improvement, is as irrelevant now as when I reported the uselessness of the S&P/Case-Shiller doom-and-gloom report back in June .
What I do believe is significant is that the Consumer Confidence Index as reported today by The Conference Board today dropped to 47.7 from a revised 53.4 in September. A measure of employment availability deteriorated to a 26-year low.
Unemployment in New York City (specifically in Manhattan) is very high. This fact, in addition to the seasonal slowdown in residential sales, will cause price reductions on properties where the sellers are motivated to move.
Long Island and Hamptons/North Fork 3Q 2009 Residential Sales Market Reports
Posted by: | CommentsJust released today are the new 3Q 2009 Residential Sales Market Reports for Long Island and Hamptons/North Fork prepared by Miller Samual Inc. for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
Median sales price was $700,000 in the third quarter, down 4% from $729,000 in the same period last year, but up 2.9% from $680,000 in the prior quarter.
In a release of pent-up demand, there were 459 sales in the third quarter, 49.5% more than the second quarter and 29.3% more than the same period last year.
Despite the surge in sales this summer, third quarter listing inventory expanded 5.8% to 2,419 properties compared to the prior quarter as sellers attempted to take advantage of the newly active housing market.
Days on market for properties that sold during the third quarter expanded to 198 days from 173 days at this time last year. The surge in demand enticed sellers to leave their property on the market, which drove this indicator higher.
The listing discount, the distance buyers and sellers had to travel to agree on price, expanded to 16.9% in the third quarter from 10.2% in the same period last year.
The number of sales in the third quarter jumped 41.6% to 5,603 properties above prior quarter levels and was 5.9% above the number of sales seen during the same period last year.
The increase in the number of sales has reduced the number of properties available for sale. There were 22,170 properties listed for sale at the end of the third quarter, a 10.1% decline from the 24,672 listing inventory total of the same period last year.
Median sales price was $375,000 in the third quarter, up 4.2% from $360,000 in the prior quarter, but remained 9.6% below the $415,000 of the same period a year ago.
Days on market, or the time it took to market a property, was 116 days, essentially unchanged from 115 days in the same period last year, but was 10 days faster than the prior quarter.
The listing discount, which is the difference between the list price at time of sale and the contract price, was 6.5%, up nominally from 6.4% in the same period a year ago.
The Federal Reserve Beige Book Second District–New York
Posted by: | CommentsCommonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector.
Below is a the summary for Manhattan residential a sales and rental markets as published today by the FRB.
“Manhattan’s apartment sales market remained weak in the third quarter. Sales activity rebounded moderately from the prior quarter but remained lower than a year earlier; prices continued to decline and were estimated to be down 18 percent from a year earlier on a per-square-foot basis. The inventory of listings declined modestly, but the average number of days on the market continued to climb.
Manhattan’s rental market slackened further in September, with average asking rents continuing to run about 10 percent below a year earlier; in addition, landlords are reported to be offering increasingly generous concessions–waiving fees and offering one or more months of free rent. Vacancy rates are reported to have edged down seasonally, but this is expected to reverse in the upcoming (typically slower) winter season”.
The end of a quarter brings a blizzard of Residential Sales and Rental Market Reports; followed by a spurt of press coverage spinning and analyzing the reports. But here’s a report that’s different.
New York Retail Leasing Activity Report created by Faith Consolo Chairman of Prudential Douglas Elliman’s Leasing and Sales Division.
The Faith Report reads like a who’s who of luxury retailers.
Faith believes that “New York City luxury retail remains resilient, with new entries and expansions paving the way for a phenomenal fall.”
From Madison Avenue to 5th Avenue and the Upper East Side, across Central Park on the Upper West Side down to Union Square, the West Village, Soho, Nolita, Tribeca and to the Lower East Side, the Faith Report alerts you to the newest digs for your favorite designers and other trend-setting retailers.
Brooklyn and Queens 3Q 2009 Residential Sales Market Reports
Posted by: | CommentsJust released today are the new 3Q 2009 Residential Sales Market Reports for Brooklyn and Queens prepared by Miller Samual Inc. for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
Queens Residential Sales Market Excerpts/Highlights
After below trend sales activity in the first two quarters of 2009, there was a release of pent-up demand as buyers who had been “sitting on the fence” began to make purchase decisions en masse in the third quarter. This was prompted by a rapidly rising stock market that improved consumer confidence, low mortgage rates and newly found affordability as a result of falling housing prices.
There were 2,789 sales in the current quarter, down 13.9% from 3,240 units in the prior year quarter, but jumped 31% from 2,129 units in the prior quarter.
The surge in the number of sales resulted in a decline in listing inventory.
A portion of the decline from the prior year quarter was attributable to sellers pulling their listings from the market with the strategy of re-listing when market conditions improve.
Brooklyn Residential Sales Market Excerpts/Highlights
The number of sales for the quarter surged for the second consecutive quarter, rising 29.3% to 1,847 units from 1,428 units in the second quarter.
Despite the increase in activity, the number of sales were 19.6% below the 2,298 number of sales in the prior year quarter.
The jump in the number of sales from the prior quarter reflects a release of pent-up demand from an unusually low level of sales activity seen in the early part of the year.
Listing inventory has fallen sharply but remains above typical levels.
This inventory decline was caused by individual sellers removing their listings from the market in hopes of re-listing when conditions improve.
Manhattan Rental Market Overview 3Q 2009
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Miller Samuel, an independent appraisal firm, and Prudential Douglas Elliman real estate today released the Manhattan Rental Market Overview.
The report tracks the 2549 apartment rentals in the third quarter of 2009 and compares the data to second quarter sales of this year as well as the same quarter sales of 2008 thus adjusting for seasonality.
Continued declines in rents may remove potential buyers who feel they are safer renting for a year or two while they wait for the bottom to occur in the residential sales market.
Highlights of the report include:
- The average rental per square foot was $47.84, down 9.4% from $52.80 in the prior year quarter, but an increase of 8.3% from the prior quarter result of $44.16. This suggests some easing in the rate of decline since the same metric in the prior quarter fell 17.5% year over year.
- There were 6,527 listings available at the end of the third quarter, 5.4% above the 6,191 listings in the same period last year, but 10.5 below the prior quarter total of 7,290 listings.
- Downtown had the highest rental price per square foot of the four regions and saw a modest increase over the summer, averaging $45.87 per square foot, up 2.9% from the prior quarter.
- One-bedroom apartments showed the largest gains over the summer, rising 6.3% to $46.62 per square foot from the prior quarter. Other than 2-bedroom apartments, which saw a 1% increase over the same period, all other types posted declines.
Every quarter I find it fun and interesting to read what the pundits have to say after the Manhattan Real Estate Market Reports are published. As you can see below, the 3Q Manhattan Market Overview created quite a lot of buzz. This report was prepared by Miller Samual Inc. for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
I think the discussion of the 3Q market trends is best summarized in this special report podcast on The Housing Helix by the report’s creator Jonathan Miller .
| 10/02/2009 | The New York Times | Manhattan Apartment Sales Spike in 3Q; Prices Vary | Newspaper | |
