Are you enticed by the mortgage interest lowest rates in decades? If so you’re not alone, but they are often out of borrowers’ reach. Lenders base their rates on perceived risk. Only if you can show you’re low-risk would you qualify for a rate that matches those seen in headlines.

If you’re looking for the lowest available rates consider these basic factors:

• Credit Score: The ideal FICO score is around 740 or higher. This will put you in the best place for pricing.
• Points: 1% of the loan amount is a point, and by paying points you can reduce your mortgage rate. Be sure to ask for a zero point quote as well to compare the two rates.
• Property Types: Such property types as duplexes, condominiums in newer buildings or with lower down payments, commercial properties or non-owner occupied properties come with higher rates.
• Down Payment: Experts say putting down at least 25% could lead to more attractive pricing. Lenders offer different breaks on rates if equity is higher.
• Loan Length: ARM and 15-year loans are often lower than those on the 30-year loan. Consider how long you plan to live in the property and weigh your options.
• Other considerations:
• Lock-in: You may receive a lower rate for a shorter lock period 30-45 days rather than the usual 60 days
• Additional ownership costs, taxes, insurance and maintenance.

 Inspired by New York Times Article by Vickie Elmer published January 12, 201

MARKET RECAP

The news is understandably slow the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day. The most notable release was last Friday’s news on new home sales, which rose to an annualized rate of 315,000 units in November, a 1.6-percent gain over October.

To be sure, we have a long way to go until we reach the normalized construction rate of 1.5-million units per year. Nevertheless, we expect the new-home market to gain pace in 2012. After all, there are only 158,000 units in inventory. Even at the current slow sales pace, this equates to a record low six-month supply
Over the past three years, new-home construction has fallen far below historical norms and also below the level needed to keep pace with population growth. The fact is our country gains roughly 2.7 million people and one million new households annually.

You might not see supply as a problem. We are all familiar with the glut of distressed properties. Indeed, Bank of America expects eight million distressed homes to come to market over the next four years. These homes, we’ve so often heard, will continue to depress new home construction.

We view B-of-A’s outlook with a skeptical eye. There is a likely prospect that many of these distressed properties will simply go away. Destruction is too frequently overlooked in many supply projections. A house is not a permanent structure. Many are destroyed by fire, wind and flood each year. Many more are lost through simple decay and abandonment. Based on U.S. Census data, 300,000 homes are lost annually. That number will surely rise in years to come.

In short, the math – low inventory plus more households minus more home destruction – suggests to us a rebound in new-home construction. We are not alone in this contention, either. Wells Fargo projects that housing starts will continue to rise each year for the next five years before reaching once again the normalized construction rate of 1.5-million units annually by 2017.

Of course, projections are one thing, betting on those projections is another. Here, we see an encouraging trend. Big money is starting to wager on housing. The Wall Street Journal reports that many large hedge funds are investing billions in housing-related investments. Other investors have followed suit. Shares of homebuilders are up 30 percent over the past three months, making them one of the best performing investments in the market.

Up For A New Year

As we approach the end of the old year nearly all of us stop to ask, “How will the new year unfold?” Of course, none of us know with any certainty the answer to that question, but it can be insightful (and fun) to ponder. So, how will 2012 unfold, at least as it pertains to the housing and mortgage markets?

Both markets will obviously be influenced by economic growth, which, in turn, will spur job growth. We see a pick up in economic growth and job growth in 2012.
The economy has been growing at a sluggish rate for too long now. The United States is unique in that Americans tire of pessimism quicker than most other cultures, and then we do something about it. In our opinion, rising consumer confidence points to a lot of pent-up demand that is waiting to bust loose, and will bust loose in 2012.

A pick up in demand, in turn, necessitates new hires. In fact, a recent survey by CareerBuilder.com found that nearly one in four employers is keen to add new permanent full-time employees. These employers are simply waiting for a clear sign the coast is clear. We think they will get that sign in the first quarter of 2012.

Greater economic activity will obviously impact the housing market. We see accelerated sales volume in both the new and existing home markets. We also expect to see prices stabilize in the first half of the year, and then appreciate perceptibly in the second half.

As for the mortgage market? This is much more difficult to call. The Federal Reserve has stated it intends to hold rates low through 2012. However, all it takes are a few persuasive signs that the economy is back on track, and the Fed could easily backtrack from its stated goals. All we can say is that we would be much less surprised to see mortgage rates 50 basis points higher six months from today than 50 basis points lower.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Vickie Elmer December 29, 2011.  Data and Commentary provided by Fred Ashe, from DE Capital Mortgage.

The restoration of the limits only apples to FHA mortgages, not Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which also expired at the end of September.  The conforming loan limit for these two secondary mortgage market companies will remain at a maximum of $625,500.

While this may be good news for many markets, in Manhattan, where over 70% of the apartments for sale are Co-ops, it probably won’t make much difference.  Most co-op boards require 20-50% down payments and higher income to debt rations (25-30% maximum debt to income).   Lenders for most condos are asking for at least 20% down payment to qualify for a loan.

Excerpts from Daily Real Estate News, November 18, 2011

Pre-Qualified:   This is the first step in the mortgage process.  You talk to a lender and give them overall numbers regarding income, debt and assets.  The lender will evaluate the information and give you an idea of how much and what type of mortgage you qualify for. This is sometimes done over the phone and is not a sure thing, only a ball-park of the amount you might expect to be approved

Pre-Approved:  Is much more involved.  Requires an official application and even sometimes a fee; documentation and extensive check on everything you’ve put on the application as well as your current credit rating.  At this point, if approved, you’ll receive an official commitment in writing for an exact loan amount, with conditions.

Generally, getting pre-qualified before you start looking gives you a starting price you can afford so you’re looking at only properties at or below that price.  Getting pre-approved puts you in a stronger position in offers and negotiations and saves some time.

The loan commitment is the final step in the process.  This approves you the buyer to a specific property.  Your income and credit profile will be checked again to ensure nothing has changed since the initial approval.  It is only issued when the bank is certain it will lend you the money.

Adapted from InvestoPedia article by Brian O’Connell 

Tips for home-buying freelancers:

• Pay off other debts, including credit cards, and build a cash reserve.
• Identify the source of the down payment, whether a gift or loan from your 401(k), and be prepared to show statements.
• Prepare for a closer examination.  Review at least 3 years tax returns.  If your income increased substantially from one year to the next, be prepared to explain why and whether you expect it to continue.  If your income declined last year, be prepared to explain that.
• Check with local banks and credit unions which may be more inclined to spend the time necessary to qualify you for a mortgage.

It is always wise to address any credit problems before beginning the house hunt.  With a little preparation and answers to some tough questions, you may be able to get into the home of your dreams.

Inspired by New York Times article by Vickie Elmer, August 26, 2011.

MARKET RECAP

The woes of homebuilders and anyone dependent on home building continue. The July report on new home sales shows that the annual sales rate has fallen to 298,000 units, hitting a five-month low. The good news is that supply isn’t expanding. In fact, only 165,000 homes are in inventory. This is a record low and a 6.6-month supply at the going sales pace.

Homebuilders face a cluster of problems: bargain-priced foreclosures; higher lending standards; and skittish buyers, many of whom have been further put off by the recent stock market sell-off. Mounting concerns of a double-dip recession and rising cancellation rates have only exacerbated homebuilder worries. The chief concern now is that builders could be forced to cut prices, something they’ve been fighting tooth-and-nail.

Despite the recent spate of bad news, home prices continue to hold their own, and in many instances are moving higher – at least month-over-month. The FHFA home price index for June increased 0.9 percent after posting 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent increases in May and April respectively.

However, does the slump in new and existing home sales portend falling home prices? We remain optimistic that prices will hold. People are understandably wary about big-ticket purchases, like a home, because of slow job growth and stagnating economic activity. But all have a reservation price (a price they will not sell below). Houses (that is, habitable houses) won’t be given away; they’ll be taken off market if the sales price doesn’t exceed the reservation price.

Reservation prices could fall and the monthly price trend could reverse, of course. That said, we think most of the bad news is baked into the system, so we don’t think there will be any heavy discounting. In short, we still think a home is a worthwhile investment in today’s market.

Mortgages have also been holding a price trend. Bankrate reported that its weekly survey on rates posted another all-time low. It’s worth noting, though, that after the survey was released, yields on the 10-year Treasury note spiked 10 basis points, which points to higher mortgage rates in the next survey.

A surfeit of negative news has kept mortgage rates low. This has lead many analysts to opine that ultra-low mortgage rates are the new norm. We think this is a dangerous way of thinking (which we’ll explain below) and that it is still best to take advantage of rates unseen in over 50 years.

Is This the New Norm?

We’ve gone down the higher-inflation, higher-interest rate road many times in the past, only to find ourselves doubling back. There is an interesting trend occurring with banks, though, that could persuade us to go down it once again.

One of the more vocal criticisms of banks is that they haven’t been lending as much as they should. There is some validity to the criticism; banks have been squirreling away a higher amount of reserves with the Federal Reserve, which has attenuated loan supply and, therefore, money supply, thus keeping inflation in check.

Data released by the Federal Reserve show this period of containment appears to be ending. In other words, excess bank reserves are leaking into the economy and money supply is growing. Because we operate in a fraction-reserve banking system, which means one dollar can be sufficiently leveraged to produce nine more; more reserves put to work can quickly raise inflation pressure.

This all might seem abstruse to the layperson unfamiliar with the intricacies of the Federal Reserve and fractional-reserving banking. All we are saying is that it is folly to write off price inflation and the possibility of higher mortgage rates, because there is no “normal” when it comes to financial markets.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Vickie Elmer August 26, 2011.  Data and Commentary provided by Fred Ashe, from DE Capital Mortgage.

Be prepared is the name of the game. 

• As part of your real estate team, in addition to an attorney, financial advisor/accountant and real estate broker, seek out a mortgage professional you can trust.  They will be privy to all aspects of your financial life.
• Check your credit score and review credit reports
• Gather your Documents
  • Two years of complete Federal Tax Returns including W-2s
  • Two recent and consecutive period’s paystubs
  • two complete and consecutive months bank statements
  • two complete and consecutive months brokerage account statements
  • one recent quarterly retirement account statements for each retirement account
  • photo ID
  • Mortgage professional will review and point out any potential red flags
  • Complete mortgage application and submit to lender.
  • Get a pre-approval letter.

With the approval letter in hand, your real estate broker will have a better understanding of the price range you qualify and can show you properties that fit your needs and budget.  Your broker will be able to negotiate from a stronger position.  Before you know it, you’ll be moving into your new apartment.

 Adapted from an article written by Richard Martin/SVP/DE Capital Mortgage an affiliate of Prudential Douglas Elliman.

ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage) were very popular during the boom years, but fell out of favor because the rates were very close to those of fixed-rate mortgages.  Recently, because of historically low interest rates for fixed rate mortgages, the difference between fixed and adjustable-rate loans is targeted to bet widest in eight years, according to HSH Associates, which tracks mortgage rates.

 Do they make sense?

 Ask yourself:

• Are you going to stay in the property 5 years or less?
• Are you going to be able to refinance within 5 years?
• If the rate adjusts upward in 5 years, are you going to be able to make increased payments?
• Will you be able to sell for more than the loan balance when you want?

If you are a gambler, betting that interest rates won’t rise or you can sell before they do, maybe.  If you will only stay for 5 years or less, an ARM possibly makes sense.

Let’s look at some numbers.  One popular ARM loan is a 5/1 ARM.  It has a fixed rate for the first 5 years, then adjusts every year thereafter.  A recent ARM 5/1 was quoted at 3.4%.  The average 30 year fixed rate mortgage is 4.72%.  The difference between the two is called the ‘spread’.  In this example, the spread is 1.32%, big enough to save thousands of dollars during the first five years of a mortgage.

Although there are naysayers, ARMs are becoming more attractive, and may be an option for some borrowers. Weigh the pros and cons, speak to your financial advisor and make sure the ARM is right for you.

Based in part on an article from the Wall Street Journal by AnnaMaria Androitis

 According to this New York Times article and the National Association of Realtors, there is likely to be downward pressure on prices in a lot of markets.  The National Association of Realtors plans to lobby heavily to get an extension on the loan guarantees.

It is my belief, however, in the Manhattan market, where over 70% of apartments for sale are Coops, this may be a tempest in a teapot.  Most coops require anywhere from 20% to 50% down payments, and most coop boards insists on high income to debt ratios, as much as 25% to 30% maximum debt to income.  Likewise, to get financing on a Condo, lenders have been asking for 20% or more as a down payment.

 While other areas in the country may feel the pinch, Manhattan is likely to be unaffected by this change in Government guaranteed mortgages.

Here’s some samples:

Points:  1% of the loan amount to lower the interest rate, or cover some fees involved with the transaction

 Float-Down:  After locking in your rate, the lender may give you the opportunity to lower your rate if the market rate falls.

Margin:  On Adjustable rate loans, the margin is how much above the index you are going to pay.

Cap: On Adjustable rate loans, the cap is the most the rate can increase in one year.

 Walls in Insurance:  additional insurance that banks may require insuring what’s inside the apartment.

 See the full article and video on ny1.com.