MARKET RECAP

Zillow.com had many in the media – from the Wall Street Journal, to Bloomberg, to the New York Times – talking this past week, and they were talking mostly about home prices.

Home prices, according to Zillow, posted the largest decline in nearly three years in the first quarter of 2011, with prices falling 3 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. Zillow’s data also show that prices have fallen nationally for 57-consecutive months.

The economists tell us that prices are deteriorating because of the glut of foreclosed properties selling at a discount. Mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have sold more than 94,000 foreclosed homes during the first quarter, a new high that represents a 23-percent increase from the previous quarter. More properties could be on the way: Fannie and Freddie together were holding 218,000 properties at the end of March, a 33-percent increase from a year ago.

This latest dour data on prices prompted many economists to recalibrate their forecasting models, pushing back their estimates on when the housing market will actually bottom. One economist, quoted at Housingwire.com, said, “We aren’t even halfway through a 10-year transition in the housing market.” Zillow’s in-house economist believes prices won’t hit bottom before next year and expects that “they will fall by another 7 percent to 9 percent.”

Distressed properties are an issue, to be sure. The NAR reports that d istressed property sales accounted for 39 percent of all transactions in the first quarter, up from 36 percent a year earlier. While good for sales volume, distressed properties are dragging down prices. In the first quarter, the median existing single-family home price was $158,700, down almost 5 percent from $166,400 one year ago, according to the NAR.

The rise in the number of distressed properties means more lower-priced homes, more home owners with negative equity, and, thus, even more distressed properties. It sounds like a vicious circle, except it isn’t. Most sellers have reserve prices. They won’t sell their home at just any price, regardless if they’re underwater or not. That also goes for REO properties. People are rational; they want to maximize their returns, and maximizing returns often means remaining on the sidelines instead of selling.

We still don’t back down from our contention that prices are at or near their lows. Could the price drop a little further after a purchase? Yes, but that can happen with any investment. What’s important is where the investment will be seven-to-10 years from now. We believe that residential real estate will be higher, and possibly a lot higher.

We also believe that the housing market would be in much better shape today if more people capable and willing to buy could. We are speaking of overly tight lending standards. The average credit score on loans backed by Fannie Mae stood at 762 in the first quarter, up from an average of 718 for the 2001-2004 period.

Of course, we are interested in speaking with anyone who wants a mortgage who understands the unique opportunity to get a loan at a low rate and to buy a home at a low price. There is a lot we can still do, but there would be more we could do if the tethers were only reasonably lengthened.

The Great Protector from Inflation

Inflation is on many people’s minds these days, including ours. Investors are expressing the most obvious concern, revealed in their seemingly insatiable demand for gold and silver – two historical antidotes to the ill-effects of inflation. Both metals have nearly doubled in price over the past few years.

Real estate is another great protector. Returns on residential real estate have typically averaged a return that was 1-to-2 percent above the rate of inflation over the past century. That’s easy to forget, given the off-putting news on recent price declines. But the message is worth remembering, especially at a time when investors have been piling into richly priced gold and silver. We think real estate is the better value and the better protector from inflation at current prices.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Maryann Haggerty May 12, 2011.  Data and Commentary provided by Fred Ashe, from DE Capital Mortgage.

MARKET RECAP

There wasn’t much news on housing sales this past week, so markets focused on prices instead. The chatter centered mostly on fear of the dreaded “double dip.” The fear that home prices will continue to fall and will make new lows.

There is some validity to the fear, if we consider only national numbers. Clear Capital reports that national prices fell 5 percent in April compared to the year-ago period. Over the past nine months, national prices are purported to have declined 11.5 percent.

Distressed properties were to blame. Clear Capital says that REO sales accounted for 34.5 percent of overall sales nationwide after declining to nearly 20 percent in the middle of 2010. This same pattern surfaced in 2008, when REO saturation grew from 20 percent to 32 percent by the end of the year.

It’s an apples-to-oranges comparison (2008 to 2011) in our opinion. Back in 2008 and early 2009, the entire nation was a mess: markets converged and they all dropped in tandem. Today is different; housing markets and economies are more localized. We think Michael Fratantoni, vice president of research and economics for the Mortgage Bankers Association, put it best when he described today’s market as a “tale of two cities.” Home prices are stabilizing and rising in economically viable parts of the country, while other areas remain paralyzed by high unemployment and shadow inventories.

Every region of the country has shadow inventory, but it is proportionally high in parts of California , Michigan , Nevada , Florida , and Arizona . These states still have a lot of work to do to rid themselves of distressed properties. The difference between 2008 and today is that what happens in Vegas really does stay in Vegas. In other words, don’t let national price trends keep you awake, particularly if the comparisons are year-over-year.

It remains a buyer’s market, though, and we’d like to see buyers take advantage of a stable lending environment. In fact, rates actually eased lower this past week. Some credit-market commentators pointed to the death of Osama bin Laden for the lower rates, the rationale being that investors were fearful of a market-churning retaliation, so they flocked to U.S. Treasury securities.

It’s difficult to say for sure why rates dropped; there are simply too many factors that move markets over the short term to say which one is most influential. We prefer to keep our eye on the long term, which is being driven by soaring consumer prices, rising gold prices, and falling value of the dollar. To us, they add up to rising mortgage rates. And we’re not alone in that assessment: the MBA forecasts a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rate of 6.2 percent next year.

Hot versus Cold Markets

It’s an age-old dichotomy: some people prefer to buy into the latest trend; some people prefer to go against the crowd and buy what few people appear to want.

In the past couple issues, we’ve noted that the residential rental real estate market is turning, which means more people are buying rental properties. Does that mean that the rental market is now a hot market? We don’t think so. We think it is more of a developing market. That is, it is garnering more interest among more people, but it is still not hot. A hot market to us is the commodities market, gold in particular, and the stock market. Both have nearly doubled over the past two years.

Residential real estate, if not a cold market is a cool market, and we think these types of markets offer more reward for less risk. We have to look no further then the past two hot markets – the stock market of 1999 and the real estate market of 2006 – to realize how dangerous it can be to buy into the hot market.

Of course, it is impossible to accurately predict how hot or cold markets can get, but if we were to bet on which would be the hot market two or three years from now, our money would be on the real estate market.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Maryann Haggerty May 6, 2011.  Data and Commentary provided by Fred Ashe, from DE Capital Mortgage.

MARKET RECAP

We stated previously that an upturn in sales would mark the start of the spring buying season. We are happy to report that signs are appearing to support our premonition. RE/MAX reported that home sales increased by double-digits in March from February in all but one of the 54 U.S. metropolitan areas it covers. This represents a complete reversal from January, when none of the 54 cities saw even single-digit monthly sales increases.

The National Association of Realtors corroborated Re/Max’s bullish report with one of its own. The NAR’s data show that March was a decent month for existing home sales, with sales up 3.7 percent to an annualized rate of 5.1 million units. Prices also firmed slightly, up 2.2 percent, to a median reading of $159,600. More homes were on the market, 3.55 million, but the solid rise in sales dropped the supply to 8.4 months.

The beleaguered homebuilders could also see an improved selling market as we head into the late spring/early summer months. Housing starts in March rebounded 7.2 percent following a monthly 18.5-percent drop in February. The March annualized pace of 549,000 units came in significantly higher than analysts’ estimate for 510,000 units. The improvement was led by a monthly 7.7 percent boost in single-family starts. More encouraging, housing permits gained 11.2 percent after decreasing 5.2 percent in February.

Over the past six months, the monthly housing data have shown improvements, or at least stabilization, in pricing and sales. Of course, real estate is seasonal and year-over-year comparisons are usually the focus. On that front, the data are generally lower. However, it is not an apples-to-apples comparison. This time last year, we were still operating in a more subsided market, thanks to the federal tax credits, so it’s really meaningless to compare the normalized market of today to the tax-credit-supported market of yesterday.

We could also argue that we are still not operating in a normalized mortgage market. Mortgage rates remain low, and have remained low longer than we had thought. The Federal Reserve has added unprecedented liquidity and held rates low through its open-market operations of buying Treasury and government agency securities. That said, we still believe that mortgage rates will play catch up with rising prices in the coming months.

Credit standards, which we see as the biggest impediment in the housing recovery at this point, are also not normalized. March posted a record all-cash sales rate of 35 percent. That tells us that too many people are being excluded from the market. Our biggest wish for the coming months is for more lenient standards and more private mortgage investors. Right now, the mortgage market is having a sale on size-10 shoes only, which is great if that’s your size, but not so great if it isn’t.

The Great American Downgrade

It seems unfathomable, but it happened nonetheless: Standard & Poor’s changed its outlook on U.S. Treasury bonds from “stable” to “negative” and warned it might downgrade the U.S. debt from its top AAA rating if government officials don’t get the country’s budget deficit under control.

Does that mean that we are on the road to Zimbabwe? No, but a potential downgrade does have some implications for credit markets. It could pull nervous money from the bond market and place it in the stock or commodities markets. (Gold is above $1,500/ounce for a reason.) More than anything, the downgrade threat is a wake-up call to start getting the United States’ fiscal and monetary house in order. That means ending our low-interest rate and easy-money ways.

The world is focused on us to see if our government can take this deficit seriously and address it coherently. In short, seriousness and coherence are precursors to rising interest rates, and that includes mortgage rates.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Maryann Haggerty April 21, 2011.  Data and Commentary provided by Fred Ashe, from DE Capital Mortgage.

MARKET RECAP

Much ado was made about a CoreLogic report on foreclosures this past week. The headline went something like this: “The number of U.S. homes worth less than the debt owed on them dropped in the third quarter.” That would seem to get the spirits rising, until you read past the first paragraph and discover the improvement was largely due to mounting foreclosures rather than rising property values.

Still, the report offered some hope, noting that 22.5 percent of homes with mortgages, or roughly 10.8 million units, were underwater at the end of the third quarter, which is better than the 23 percent, or 11 million homes, reported to be underwater at the end of the second quarter.

We’ll offer our usual caveat with national numbers: they rarely pertain to any particular local market. Indeed, the usual suspects – Nevada , Arizona , Florida , Michigan and California – heavily skew the numbers on negative equity. CoreLogic reports that 67 percent of Nevada homes with mortgages are underwater – an incomprehensible amount to those who reside in cooler, damper environs.

We have two options for reducing negative equity: price appreciation or disposition. The aforementioned five states will likely rely more on the latter. However, that doesn’t mean that everyone is doomed to the same fate. At the least, price inflation – one of the Federal Reserve’s stated economic goals – will eventually seep into the housing market to stabilize prices.

Homebuilders will continue to suffer with foreclosures and negative equity, which is why sentiment among this group continues to dwell in the basement, and will likely continue to dwell there for the foreseeable future. This despite the Commerce Department reporting that housing starts rose 3.9 percent, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 555,000 units, in November. Unfortunately, permits decreased by 4 percent.

Homebuilders are also less than thrilled with mortgages rates. Bankrate.com reported that rates on the 30-year fixed-rate loan hit 5 percent nationally – the highest in seven months. With all due respect to homebuilders, we don’t view rate increases as being all bad. Yes, it has increased teeth gnashing by those borrowers waiting for 3.5 percent mortgages, but rate increases are a sign of economic improvement. A stronger economy makes business investment more attractive, thus drawing funds away from bond markets. The result is lower demand for bonds, which translates to a drop in bond prices and a rise in yields and interest rates (which is good for savers, by the way).

The best advice we can offer at this point is to lock in today’s rate. Admittedly, we could see a pullback, but we wouldn’t anticipate it being much of one. Too many indicators point to a higher-rate environment.

Staying Ahead of the Trend

People are naturally attracted to trends: the longer a trend has been sustained, the more likely they believe that trend will be sustained into the future. It can be a misleading way of perceiving markets, for often it is the exact opposite: the longer a trend has been sustained, the more likely it will reverse.

The problem is that impending change is often imperceptible, though it is there. Simply vet the data over the past few months, and you can sense a change. Retail sales are rising; economic activity continues to build, evinced by Federal Express’ bullish outlook; and more businesses are planning to hire, evinced by a Business Round Table survey that finds that 45 percent of CEOs plan to hire within six months — the highest percentage for that group in eight years.

That said, this remains a favorable environment for homebuyers, investors, and borrowers. We all prefer to buy low and sell high, but we can buy low only when things are on sale; things are on sale when pessimism rules, as is still the case today. However, when economic indicators have trended higher and optimism rules, nothing is on sale. Sure, it feels better to buy when everyone is optimistically inclined, but doing so is rarely profitable over the long run.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Lynnley Browning  December 19, 2010.  Data and Commentary provided by Fred Ashe, from DE Capital Mortgage.

MARKET RECAP

The Federal Reserve was front and center this past week. Everyone knew that would be the case, but the Fed ruled the financial pages anyway. First, Fed officials did the obvious: they announced that the federal funds rate – the lending rate between banks – would be held at 0 percent to 0.25 percent. Later, Fed officials did something else obvious: they announced that the Federal Reserve was going to pump even more money into our sluggish economy. 

On the latter, the Fed will purchase an additional $600 billion in long-term Treasury bonds over the next eight months. It will also reinvest up to $300 billion in Treasury bonds, using proceeds from earlier investments. This is the famous “quantitative easing” that has so preoccupied economists and the commentators for the past month. The purpose of quantitative easing is twofold: (1) to increase the money supply, and thus stave off deflation; and (2) to keep interest rates low and increase the amount of loanable funds. 

So what does this mean to us? The Fed is counting on more lending at lower interest rates. However, we wouldn’t necessarily count on it. As we’ve noted in past editions, increasing the money supply is inflationary. To date, most of the inflation has been in financial investments, namely stocks and commodities. Though the official consumer price measures say there is no inflation, most of us know otherwise – especially after a trip to the grocery store or gas station. In short, lower mortgage rates are not a given. 

Nor is it a given that lending volume will increase. Most of us have experienced the trials and tribulations of adhering to Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s underwriting standards, which are frustratingly (and we think unnecessarily) stringent. On the one hand, the Fed is encouraging homeowners to refinance; on the other hand, the Federal Housing Finance Agency – which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – is making it difficult to refinance. Talk about a catch-22. 

The good news is that we could see a break in the logjam. A survey from the structured finance technology firm Principia Partners found that three out of five asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities investors plan to increase their activity in the securitization space over the next 12 months. That means more diversity in the mortgage market, which should increase mortgage offerings, and, just as important, increase offerings that are conflated with less stringent, more market-oriented underwriting standards.
In the meantime, mortgage rates continue to hold historical lows, but we think the risk that they won’t continue to hold these lows is increasing. Yes, more money can mean cheaper money, but it can also mean more expensive money if inflation takes hold in a serious way. At the least, we think interest-rate volatility will increase, making the waiting game more perilous. We see little upside in delaying refinancing or purchasing a home; there are simply too many unknowns lurking about that could spoil even the best-laid plans.

Base Building

The Census Bureau reported last week that the percentage of households that owned their homes has fallen to an 11-year low, at 66.9 percent. Homeownership had peaked at 69 percent in 2004. The historical norm, dating back to 1970, is around 65 percent. The drop in homeownership is actually good news, in that we are taking yet another step toward a more normalized market. With new home construction at a multi-year low, we could be forming a sturdy base from which growth can arise over the next decade. 

Of course, foreclosures remain the Damocles sword that could imperil any growth prospects by swamping the market with inventory. Some of the predictions are onerous (especially those from RealtyTrac), but we think we see a permanent reprieve nonetheless. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reported that the percentage of delinquent mortgages they hold continues to fall, with Fannie reporting a sixth-straight monthly decline and Freddie reporting a fourth-straight monthly decline. This news suggests that more mortgage holders have the financial wherewithal and the desire to service their loans and stay in their homes. 

We might be in the minority, but we think the positive data trend that has developed over the past couple months will produce a steady, if not significantly improved, housing market for 2011.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Lynnley Browning  November 5, 2010.  Data and Commentary provided by Fred Ashe, from DE Capital Mortgage.

MARKET RECAP

The week was light on housing and mortgage data, which was a good thing; most of what was released offered little cheer. For instance, Capital Economics reported that 2.5 million households are going through the foreclosure process, while 5.4 million households have missed at least one mortgage payment. Capital Economics also expects another three million homes to be added to the foreclosure rolls by the end of 2011. In short, Capital Economics is calling for a housing-market double-dip.

Problems persist aside from the above mentioned, to be sure. According to more than a few sources, housing prices are under pressure. ZipRealty.com, for one, has noted that more than 43 percent of home sellers cut their home’s list price in May, dropping the national median “for sale” price 2 percent to $265,000.

Of course, we can always question the usefulness of national data. But if we are going to talk nationally, it’s worth broaching the positive as well. On that front, Integrated Asset Services (IAS) reported that its house price index rose 0.9 percent in April from March. IAS also reported that three of the four US census regions showed home-pricing gains for the month.

The expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credits remains the elephant in the room, according to the commentaries, though it appears to be less of a concern for people who actually earn a living in the housing sector. Publicly traded homebuilders are seeing sales recover after an initial drop-off following April 30. A recent analyst’s report from JMP Securities noted that sales at several homebuilder communities in California, Texas, and Phoenix – those notoriously hard-hit regions – have begun to improve and are approaching pre-April numbers. JMP’s report also noted that many builders are raising prices and that higher-priced homes are moving briskly.

We noted in last week’s edition that the housing market could easily follow the automobile market’s lead, where sales initially drop after tax-credit expiration but then regain momentum. We’ve also noted – quite frequently in many past editions – that employment is the real cure to what ails us. Even though last week’s employment report was tepidly received, we remain encouraged. Job openings jumped to the highest level in 16 months in April, with the number of jobs advertised rising to 3.1 million from 2.8 million. The fact that private employers accounted for the entire gain was a particularly encouraging sign.

An improving jobs outlook is good news for the economy, but less so for mortgage rates. Yes, rates continue to hold at historical lows (with improvements being marginal at best), but Federal Reserve rumblings on raising rates continue to build, which is why we continue to counsel against procrastination on a refinance or a home purchase. We also counsel that money is available: little- or negative-equity does not exclude a favorable refinance.

Another Round of Reasonable Perspective

There is no question that we face formidable, long-term structural problems – problems that have made US markets less attractive in recent years. But these problems are surmountable. We have no qualms saying that the spirit of innovation and entrepreneurship that has defined America in past crises will prevail today.

Though housing remains tepid and debt and deficit levels are rising, compared to the rest of the world the United States is in good shape. Our economic fundamentals are sound: manufacturing levels are up and interest rates and inflation are low. What’s more, the broader economic recovery is translating into meaningful employment improvements and corporate-profit growth that could potentially reach a record high in this year’s third quarter.

Risks clearly remain, but markets are always fraught with risks: there are no perfect markets. To the contrary, when markets seem the most perfect, that’s when they are the most risky, as the housing and mortgage markets post-2006 have so painfully revealed. Things still aren’t so rosy today, but that’s okay, because we’re sure that better days lay ahead.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Bob Tedeschi June 9, 2010.  Data and Commentary provided by Fred Ashe, from DE Capital Mortgage.

Mortgage rates again moved downward as European debt concerns continued to mount. In addition to Greece’s issues, Spain saw its debt downgraded last week. All of this continues to drive a major international “flight-to-quality” with US treasuries seen ns one of the safest places to stash money. Economically, our recovery does appear to be gaining some traction. While GDP was adjusted down slightly, we still have significant strength in manufacturing. Additionally, government stimulus has kicked home sales higher, with hopes that it can continue to hold its own without more intervention. While consumer moods have a long way to go to recovery, we’re seeing better readings.

Mortgage rates could easily move either way this week, or not at all. Analysts are expecting to see both ISM indices remain strong, and consensus estimates are calling for 500.000 new jobs to have been created last month. However, even with great domestic economic news, we could have continued concerns over Europe’s debt situation holding mortgage rates low.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Bob Tedeschi May 25, 2010.  Data provided by Jeff Carpenter, Director of Finance, GFI Mortgage Bankers, Inc.

Mortgage rates again moved downward last week, as financial markets continued to absorb the reality of the challenges in Europe, especially in Greece. Additionally, concerns over other countries’ debt levels generated some introspection here over our burgeoning debt levels. On a brighter note, economic news continues to point toward recovery. Last week, Retail Sales rose 0.4%, which was slightly better than expected. Industrial Production also climbed by 0.8%, with factory usage again moving closer to pre-recession levels, fueling hopes for a sustained recovery.

Next week, markets will get some insight into inflationary pressures with both the Consumer and Producer Prices Indices. With most experts expecting very little, if any, inflation, a surprise increase in either index could move mortgage rates upward. Even with more and more signs of economic strength here in the US, any additional concerns regarding the situation in Europe will very likely help contain any sizable increase in mortgage rates, at least for the time being.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Bob Tedeschi May 12, 2010.  Data provided by Jeff Carpenter, Director of Finance, GFI Mortgage Bankers, Inc.

Mortgage rates continued to remain fairly flat last week, even as the recovery seemed to solidify its footing. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as expected.  The accompanying policy statement did note that “economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve.” while the Fed believes that it will keep interest rates low for an “extended period” of time, it is worth noting that interest rates below 1.0% can be considered low.  With the Fed Funds rate at 0.25%, the Fed could begin lifting rates at any time.  GDP came in at 3.2%, the third quarter in a row in positive territory.

Two reports will probably dominate this week’s economic news: the ISM Manufacturing Index, and the Employment Report.   If the ISM Index climbs above 60 and unemployment shrinks with more than 200. 000 jobs created last month, we could see mortgage rates moving upward.  However, even very positive reports will continued to be tempered by international concerns over Greece’s bailout.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Bob Tedeschi April 28, 2010.  Data provided by Jeff Carpenter, Director of Finance, GFI Mortgage Bankers, Inc.

Mortgage rates moved link last week, even as economic data released during the week as slightly better than expected. Optimism that the economy may be getting some solid footing and moving from a technical recovery to a more broad-based recovery seems to be growing. The two largest areas that continue to hold out are the housing and employment markets. Last week, both new and existing home sales moved higher than expected. However, the expiring tax credit may be the reason for the underlying improvement. It will be a few months before we know for sure whether housing is really starting to improve, or is still struggling mightily.

This week is packed with important items for financial markets. We’ll get our first look at first quarter GDP numbers, two important consumer attitude surveys, and the Fed meets again. While rates are unlikely to be changed, analysts will scour the announcement looking for clues as to when rates could be lifted. The closer that event appears, the more likely mortgage rates will go up.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Bob Tedeschi April 21, 2010.  Data provided by Jeff Carpenter, Director of Finance, GFI Mortgage Bankers, Inc.

Last week’s economic data continued to be mostly positive, but mortgage rates slid downward. This manufacturing-lead recovery continues to maintain its pace, with Industrial Production numbers revealing solid gains for manufacturing and mining issues. While the housing and labor market will likely be a major drag on the recovery for some time, retail sales did tick upward more than expected.  As economically positive as most of last week’s news was, inflation at the consumer level of the economy is all but absent.  This should enable the Fed to maintain its stance regarding low interest rates for the foreseeable future.

With the Dow moving over 11,000 last week and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s remarks this weekend about the economy growing faster than expected, we could see some additional volatility in the bond market.  If we get encouraging news, especially if it includes positive news on new and existing home sales, we could see mortgage rates begin moving upward again.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Bob Tedeschi April 14, 2010.  Data provided by Jeff Carpenter, Director of Finance, GFI Mortgage Bankers, Inc.

Mortgage rates began heading upward last week as markets continued to digest the positive economic news from the previous week, and reacted to more positive news last week. The ISM Services Index rose sharply last week on the heels of a larger than expected increase in the ISM Manufacturing Index. While manufacturing has lead much of this current recovery, the increase in the Services Index reveals that we may be on the verge of seeing an even larger portion of the economy, services, moving into a sustainable growth situation

Without the support of the Fed’s program for buying mortgage-backed securities, next week could be one of the more volatile weeks we’ve seen in a while for mortgage rates. Many very important economic reports are due including Retail Sales and Industrial Production. If these two reports come in near expectations, it is very likely that mortgage rates will continue moving upward next week. However, a 0.0% or 0.1% change in the CPI could help temper that upward movement.

Graph Courtesy from NY Times in an article by Bob Tedeschi April 7, 2010.  Data provided by Jeff Carpenter, Director of Finance, GFI Mortgage Bankers, Inc.