Archive for Neighborhood Market Stats
Manhattan Co-op/Condo Residential Sales Market Report Second Quarter 2010
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Today we are released Second Quarter sales report for the Manhattan residential market. Manhattan Market Overview Q2 2010 reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
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The number of sales continued to rise. There were 2,756 sales in the second quarter, up 79.9% from 1,532 sales in the prior year quarter and up 15.6% from 2,384 sales in the prior quarter.
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The number of sales was the highest in 2 years and higher than the 2,411 quarterly average of the past decade.
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Available listing inventory continued to decline. There were 8,157 listings in the second quarter, 13% below the 9,378 listing total of the prior year quarter, but up 1.6% from the prior quarter total of 8,027. The total level of available inventory was in sync with the 8,037 listing inventory average of the past five years.
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Price indicators remained stable over the year. Price per square foot was $1,051 per square foot in the second quarter, essentially unchanged from $1,056 per square foot in the prior year quarter and up 1.2% from $1,038 per square foot in the prior quarter.
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The other price indicators increased due to the 9.7% rise in square footage to 1,364 square feet, up from 1,243 square feet in the prior year quarter.
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Properties sold much more quickly in the quarter. The average days on market—thenumber of days between the last list price change, if any, to the contract date—fell to 105 days from 162 days in the prior year quarter.
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Sellers tested buyers this quarter by pricing properties higher, but were met with resistance.
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Listing discount—the percentage difference between the list price at time of contract and the contract price—increased to 9.1% from 7.8% in the same period last year.
New York City: Spring 2010-All Dressed Up and Ready For Spring!
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Rejoice fashionistas, spring is definitely in the air! New stores, new concepts and new celebrations abound. It’s time for spring cleaning; make room for the fabulous new offerings coming soon to an avenue near you.
Faith Hope Consolo, Chairman, Retail Leasing and Sales Division
of Prudential Douglas Elliman recently published the shop ’til you drop Spring 2010 New York Retail Leasing Report
Manhattan 10-Year Townhouse Sales Trend Analyis 2000-2009
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Recently we reported the Manhattan 10-Year Townhouse Market Report for 2000-2009. The 10-year sales trend analysis summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
- There were 402 Manhattan townhouses listed for sale at the end of 2009, 24.2% below the 530 listings available in 2008. Listing inventory was similar to the levels seen ten years ago reflecting the fixed nature of turn-of-the-century housing stock.
- The 2009 median sales price of a Manhattan townhouse—defined as a 1-5 family residence that can be delivered vacant—fell 31.9% from the record set in 2008 to $3,400,000 from $4,995,000.
- There were 149 townhouse sales in 2009, down 1.3% from 151 sales in the prior year. The average annual number of sales over the past decade was 249 sales, indicating that the number of sales over the past two years have been below trend levels.
- The listing discount, the amount buyers and sellers have to move to agree on price, expanded to 15.3% in 2009 from 6.9% in the prior year.
- The days on market for townhouse properties was 142 days in 2009, faster than the 155 days in 2008.
- The decline in market conditions left more sellers “chasing the market” when setting list prices
Manhattan 2000-2009 Residential Sales and Market Anlaysis
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Approximately 92,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,500 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas have been presented with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix that compare 2009 to the prior year (2008) and prior decade (2000).
- After setting records in 2008, all three price indicators declined in 2009. This is the first time that any of the three price indicators have posted year-over-year declines since 1996.
- The 2009 median sales price of a Manhattan apartment was $850,000, down 11% from the record set in 2008 at $955,000
- Manhattan housing prices have doubled over the past decade. Price per square foot increased 105.6% to $1,073 from $522 in 2000.
- There were 7,430 sales in 2009, 27.9% fewer than were sold in 2008. However, the release of pent-up demand from the first half of 2009 caused the second half to see a surge in sales activity.
- The annualized pace of sales in the second half of 2009 was 9,400 units, higher than the 9,178 average annual number of sales over the last decade.
- There were 6,851 listings on the market at the end of 2009, 24.6% less than 9,081 listings in 2008, which was the highest level of inventory in the past decade. The 2009 inventory level was in line with the 6,860 average annual inventory level since 2000.
- Over the past decade, the Manhattan condo market has surpassed the co-op market in sales, beginning with a 40% market share and ending with a 54% market share. The gain was primarily due to the addition of new development sales to the housing stock.
The 2000-2009 Manhattan Market Report relaeased today and summarized above was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
Q4 Manhattan Residential Rental Report
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Recently the industry has reported data on fourth quarter rentals for the Manhattan residential market. The Q4 Manhattan Rental Market Overview reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
- Average rental price declined 4.3% to $3,789 from $3,958 the same period last year but up 0.8% from $3,759 the prior quarter.
- Rental price per square foot declined 4.6% to $47.02 per square foot from $49.30 per square foot during the same period last year, and down 1.7% from $47.84 per square foot in the prior quarter.
- Median rental price declined 9.4% to $2,900 from $3,200 in the same period last year and down 1.7% from $2,950 in the prior quarter.
- Number of rentals surged 47.5% to 2,456 units from 1,665 units in the prior year quarter.
- Listing inventory fell 21.3% to 5,225 units from 6,640 units in the prior year quarter.
- Days on market were 76 days, down from 97 days this time last year.
- Listing discount was 6.5%, down from 6.9% in the same period last year.
The reports do not account for the incentives (concessions) that tenants are frequently offered in the current market, like months of free rent or waived brokers’ fees. It is worth noting that that if those factors had been taken into consideration, rents could appear considerably lower. Perhaps as high as 10% lower.
Experts remain cautiously optimistic about this year as the unemployment rate, which has a huge impact on the rental market, remains high. ”We are looking for more of the same in the first half of 2010–stable activity and pricing,” Mr. Miller said.
Jonathan Miller’s pod cast discussing the Q4 Manhattan Market Overview can be heard here.
In addition, reporting and analysis of the Q4 Rental Market Survey were consolidated on the Miller Samuel website and shown below.
01/14/2010 PR Newswire Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
01/14/2010 Earth Times Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
01/14/2010 Business Week Manhattan Apartment Rents Drop 9.4% as City Job Losses Mount
01/14/2010 Bloomberg.com Manhattan Apartment Rents Drop 9.4% as City Job Losses Mount
01/14/2010 TheStreet.com Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
01/14/2010 The Real Deal Manhattan rental deals up in 4Q: reports
01/14/2010 Yahoo Finance Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
01/14/2010 Fox Business Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
In addition to the Prudential Douglas Elliman report, some of the above articles refer to the Citi Habitats Q4 Market report.
Yankees And Bronx Real Estate
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Yankees Win! NY Daily News photo
I’m not really a raving baseball fan but as long as Boston doesn’t win, I’m OK with whoever does.
John Massengale an architect and urban planner posted this brief history:
“The boss of the Yankees, George Steinbrenner, complained about parking and a perception of crime, and said he might move his team if the city didn’t build a new stadium for them. The then Mayor of the city, Rudolph Giuliani, proposed building a new stadium over a railyard on the west side of Manhattan, at a cost of $1,000,000,000.00.
The Bronx Borough President, the Honorable Fernando Ferrer, wanted to keep the Yankees in the Bronx by building what he called the Yankee Village.”
The rest is history as they say.
“The Yankees won. The world is right again,” team president Randy Levine said.
I was curious about how housing prices were doing in the Bronx since the construction of the new stadium so I visited Trulia’s Bronx Real Estate Overview
Average price per square foot for Bronx NY was $201, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last year. The median sales price for homes in Bronx NY for Jul 09 to Sep 09 was $390,000 based on 443 home sales. Compared to the same period one year ago, the median home sales price decreased 11.9%, or $52,500, and the number of home sales decreased 8.8%.
There are currently 3,048 resale and new homes in Bronx on Trulia, including 43 open houses, as well as 1,390 homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process. The average listing price for homes for sale in Bronx NY was $463,916 for the week ending Oct 28, which represents an increase of 0.7%, or $3,009, compared to the prior week. Popular neighborhoods in Bronx include Riverdale and Throgs Neck – Edgewater Park, with average listing prices of $654,112 and $456,530.
Trulia’s Heat Map and neighborhood by neighborhood residential sales details here.
The end of a quarter brings a blizzard of Residential Sales and Rental Market Reports; followed by a spurt of press coverage spinning and analyzing the reports. But here’s a report that’s different.
New York Retail Leasing Activity Report created by Faith Consolo Chairman of Prudential Douglas Elliman’s Leasing and Sales Division.
The Faith Report reads like a who’s who of luxury retailers.
Faith believes that “New York City luxury retail remains resilient, with new entries and expansions paving the way for a phenomenal fall.”
From Madison Avenue to 5th Avenue and the Upper East Side, across Central Park on the Upper West Side down to Union Square, the West Village, Soho, Nolita, Tribeca and to the Lower East Side, the Faith Report alerts you to the newest digs for your favorite designers and other trend-setting retailers.
All Real Estate is Local, Very Very Local (Still)
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Real Estate is Hyper-Local
The Case-Shiller Index reporting on residential property sales for the period of March, April, and May was published yesterday.
As noted in last month’s Geezer Rant, because the index excludes price data on new developments, condos and co-ops, the Index is not applicable to 99% of residential sales in Manhattan.
It’s interesting to note that the Wall Street Journal commented on this fact albeit in the second page and 22 paragraphs into the article:
The Survey doesn’t track condominium or cooperative apartment sales, so it doesn’t take into account the majority of housing stock on New York City.
To get a better picture of the Manhattan real estate market in the second quarter of 2009, check out the various reports and press commentary published and discussed at the beginning of this month.
The Q2 Manhattan Market Overview prepared by Miller Samuel, an independent appraisal firm, and Prudential Douglas Elliman real estate, differentiates sales by the four major regions of Manhattan: East Side, West Side, Downtown and Uptown. In addition to accounting for seasonal adjustments, the report also breaks out sales by new developments and resales–both very important factors in reporting median and average prices so that like sales are properly compared.
Even with that degree of Manhattan specificity, there remain neighborhoods within those regions can have quite different sales price results. For example the East Side consists of at least seven neighborhoods including Beekman, Kips Bay, Murray Hill, Sutton Place, Carnegie Hill and Yorkville. Then there are “corridors” like the 5th Avenue and Park Avenue.
Within Manhattan there are areas, neighborhoods, sub neighborhoods corridors etc. Within those areas are specific blocks, specific buildings with specific views from specific floors or amenities which may affect property prices. Think about a 5th Avenue apartment on a high floor facing Central Park vs. an apartment in the same building on a low floor with no park views.
But as Barry Ritholtz pointed out in his blog The Big Picture the “media coverage was mostly gushing” (see below), the point is that all real estate is local, very very local and even hyper-local. Caution should be taken when extrapolating any national reports’ data to any specific city or town.
Front Page WSJ: Home Prices Rise Across U.S.Home prices in major U.S. cities registered the first monthly gain in nearly three years, according to a new report that provided fresh evidence that the severe U.S. housing downturn could be easing. Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices in 20 metropolitan areas, rose 0.5% for the three-monthperiod ending in May, compared with the three months ending in April. It marked the index’s first increase after 34 straight months of decline, and came after a variety of housing indicators has shown glimmers of hope for the past several months
Front Page NYT: Recovery Signs in Housing Market Stir Some Hope
After a plunge lasting three years, houses have finally become cheap enough to lure buyers. That, in turn, is stabilizing prices, generating hope that the real estate market is beginning to recover. Eight cities, including Chicago, Cleveland, Denver and San Francisco, showed price increases in May, up from four in April and one in March, according to data released Tuesday. Two other cities, Charlotte, N.C., and New York, were flat.
Bloomberg.com - U.S. Home Prices Rise for First Time in Three Years
Home prices posted their first monthly gain in three years in May, a gauge of values in 20 major U.S. cities showed, reinforcing signs of stabilization in a market hammered by the worst slump since the 1930s. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index rose 0.5 percent from April, the first monthly gain since July 2006 and biggest since May of that year, the group said today in New York. The measure was down 17.1 percent from May 2008, less than forecast and the smallest year-over-year drop in nine months.
CNN/Money – Home prices up for 1st time in 3 years
Index of 20 major cities rises on a monthly basis for the first time since July 2006, hinting that the worst of the declines may be over. The value of U.S. homes grew on a monthly basis in May for the first time in nearly three years, according to 20-city index released Tuesday. The month-over-month increase was 0.5%, according to the report from financial data company Standard & Poor’s and economists Case-Shiller. It was the first increase in the monthly index since July 2006.
Reuters - Home prices up for first time in three years
U.S. single-family home prices rose in May from April, the first monthly increase in nearly three years, suggesting prices may be stabilizing, according to Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price indexes on Tuesday.
Manhattan Rental Market Report 2nd Quarter 2009
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Miller Samuel, an independent appraisal firm, and Prudential Douglas Elliman real estate today released the Manhattan Rental Market Overview. The report tracks the 2346 apartment rentals that occured in the second quarter of 2009 and compares the data to first quarter sales of this year as well as the same quarter sales of 2008 thus adjusting for seasonality.
The market report shows that rental inventory year-over year was up 28.8% , there was a 17.5% year over year decline in rental price per square foot and a 58.3% decline in the number of new rentals. Interestingly, the average rental price in Q2 09 vs. Q2 08 shows a decrease of only .9%,
At the end of a very interesting article written by Jonathan Miller for the Huffington Post, he confirms what I’ve seen is that there are a large number of first time buyers out there, and contracts are being written (and signed).
“One of the key culprits for the rental price and activity drop was the record low mortgage rates in the spring, which pulled many first time buyers out of the rental market (if they could qualify under the banks newly-found underwriting conservatism). Combine that shift with rising unemployment and there is less activity and downward pressure on rental prices.
One could therefore argue that the rental market is a leading indicator for the purchase market, at least in Manhattan. When the economy improves and the pace of unemployment begins to ease, the number of rentals should begin to rise, eventually followed by sales activity.”
Statistics show how NYers cope with the recession
Posted by: | CommentsAccording to an article in today’s Crains New York:
Crain’s City Facts report finds that Big Apple denizens are highly productive on the job, and prefer cheap thrills.
New Yorkers are neurotic overachievers who care a lot about how they look and have a penchant for inexpensive entertainment.
So say the statistics, anyway. This year’s City Facts, Crain’s New York’s annual look at New York by the numbers, shows a city and its denizens slowly being transformed by the recession – but perhaps not so fast or so dramatically as some had feared.
Among the facts uncovered by the Crain’s research team:
•New York workers are the most productive in the nation by a wide margin: 37% more productive than the average American worker, as measured by dollars produced in 2007. The margin may narrow as the recession deepens and Wall Street profits fall, but the state bears out one of the fundamental qualities of New Yorkers: their ambition.
•All that work comes with a price. New Yorkers are judged to be the third most neurotic people in the nation, say professors who theorize that particular geographies have particular personalities. Perhaps adding to New Yorkers’ stress level are the taxes and regulations that caused another set of professors to rank our state dead last when it comes to personal freedom.
•Putting their ambition on display, legions of laid-off New Yorkers have been starting their own businesses, but they shouldn’t expect an easy road. Despite the federal government’s efforts to resuscitate the financial market, small business lending is on track to decline again in 2009.
•New Yorkers helped pay for their hometown team, the Yanks, to build a spanking new stadium and then, thumbing their nose at the higher ticket prices, have been skipping the games. The Yankees are selling a lower percentage of their home game seats in their new, smaller stadium this year.
•New York is known as a city of excess, but New Yorkers actually spend less of their income on entertainment than Americans, perhaps because just living here is entertaining enough.
•The recession is likely heightening New Yorkers’ tendency to seek out low or no-cost entertainment: Circulation at the New York City Public Library is up 12% this year to 22 million.
•While fashion-first New Yorkers don’t necessarily pony up for big nights out, they do spend more on clothes and personal care than their national counterparts.
•Despite the aforementioned taxes and regulations, New York City remains the nation’s biggest corporate headquarters city, beating Texas up-and-comer Houston by a wide margin (43 to 25 headquarters of Fortune 500 companies).
•New York remains the nation’s business capital – but that may not be saying much. After years of slow growth, the government, health care and education sectors make up a full third of all the jobs in New York City
