Archive for Neighborhood Market Stats

While Quarterly Sales Reports show closed activity for the previous quarter, monthly Contract Signed reports are the ‘crystal ball’ of closed sales to come.  Granted all contracts signed for any given month may not close in the next month,  and some may not close at all but most (over 95%) will become closed sales which will become part of the next Quarterly Sales Report.

In the following charts and graphs you can see how the market stacks up against last month and this month last year.

 

 

 

 

 

According to the New York City Department of Finance, the market value of real property is $845.4 billion, an increase of 3.8 percent compared to last year.

Manhattan rental apartment buildings’ market value increased 15 percent, cooperative apartment buildings increased 9.5 percent and condominium units 7.1 percent compared to a year ago.

In Brooklyn, rental apartment buildings increased 3.9 percent, cooperative apartment buildings 1.6 percent and condominium units 1.2 percent compared to 2011.

Compared to the peak of the market in 2007, the market value of Manhattan rental apartment and cooperative apartment buildings has increased 22.5 percent, and condominium units increased 48.2 percent according to the City of New York.

In Brooklyn, the market value of rental buildings was up 3.5 percent, cooperative apartments 18.4 percent.
These market value increases have resulted in a 40 percent increase in real property taxes since the peak of the market in 2008.

From MIke Slattery, Senior Vice President, REBNY Research Department

This week, we released our Fourth Quarter report for the Manhattan Residenital Rental Market.  Manhattan Residential Rentals Market Overview Q4 2011 reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

“Tight mortgage credit conditions continued to drive rental prices and activity higher.”

  • The median net effective rent (face rent less landlord concessions) jumped 9.5% from $2,950 to $3,121 in the same period last year. The year-over-year-gains were consistent across all rental price indicators.
  • The 2-bedroom and 3-bedroom markets outpaced their smaller counterparts,increasing 14% and 18.1% respectively over the same period.
  • New rental activity (excluding lease renewals) was up 10% from 7,217 to 7,942 in the same quarter last year.
  • About 7.4% of new leases had some form of landlord concession compared to the 40.5% in the prior year quarter. For those leases with concessions, the average amount was the equivalent of 1.2 months of free rent.
  • Days on market—the number of days from original list date to lease signing—was at its second fastest pace of 37 days in 15 years, which is when we began tracking this metric.

Our Q4 Manhattan Market Overview was released today and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

“After a year of mixed economic news, the Manhattan housing market, while continuing to experience overall price stability, closed out the year with a slower pace of sales.”

  •  Median sales price was $855,000, a modest 1.2% increase from $845,000 in the prior year quarter. Price per square foot increased 5.6% to $1,117 from $1,058 over the same period.
  • There were 2,011 sales in the fourth quarter, 12.4% less than 2,295 in the prior year quarter. The fourth quarter had the lowest number of sales since the same period six years ago, perhaps related to the unusual surge in sales in the prior quarter. Pending sales were also below the prior year level.
  • There were 7,221 active listings at the end of the fourth quarter, essentially unchanged from the same period last year, but 2.6% less than the ten-year quarterly average of 7,412.
  • Days on market—the number of days from the last price change if any to the contract date—saw a modest 5 day increase to 130 days from 125 days, still consistent with the 132 day average for the prior decade.
  • Listing discount—the percent difference between the list price at time of sale to the sales price—fell to 4.9% from 8% in the same period last year.

Today we released third quarter sales  for theHamptons/North Fork residential market.  The Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Q3 2011 reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

“East End market conditions reflected increased activity, especially in the luxury market as listing inventory slipped”

  • There were 538 sales in the third quarter, 14.7% above 469 sales total in the same period last year, but 13.1% below the prior quarter total of 619 sales.
  • Median sales price was $700,000 in the third quarter, 12% higher than $625,000 in the prior year quarter. In the third quarter, 67.1% of all sales fell below the million dollar threshold consistent with the 65.9%, five-year average.
  • There were 2,238 listings at the end of the third quarter, 1.5% less than the 2,271 listings in the same period last year.
  • Although price indicators and sales activity increased from the same period last year, the listing discount measuring the negotiability between buyer and seller edged higher to 11.3% from 10% in the same period last year.
  • Days on market, the number of days from the last price change to contract date, increased 6 days to 170 days from 164 days in the prior year quarter.

Today we released third quarter sales  for the Long Island residential market.  The Long Island Market Overview Q3 2011 reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

“Sales activity jumped above last year’s levels, as listing inventory slipped.  Negotiability between buyers and sellers held steady.”

  • Median sales price declined 3.2% to $365,000 from $377,250 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price followed a similar pattern, declining 3.9% to $457,496 from $475,946. The decline is largely attributable to last year’s federal homebuyers tax credit that had pushed sales prices higher.
  • There were 5,141 sales in the third quarter, 18.4% above the 4,343 total in the prior year quarter and 22.3% above the prior quarter total of 4,205. The current total is the fourth highest quarter in three years, led by three quarters significantly impacted by the federal homebuyers tax credit from the second half of 2009 through early 2010.
  • There were 21,462 listings on the market at the end of the third quarter, 1% less than 21,670 listings in the prior year quarter and 5.8% less than 22,772 listings in the prior quarter.
  • The average number of days to sell a property from its original list date to contract date was 116, nominally longer than 112 days in the prior year quarter.
  • The listing discount, or negotiability between buyer and seller, measures the percentage discount from the original list price and the sales price, was essentially unchanged at 6.5% in the third quarter compared to 6.6% in the same period last year.

  • “Despite a banner month for Governor Cuomo, New Yorkers put their Trumpets down when it came to the Economy” Read all about it at Siena Research Institute
  • New York City Tax Commissioner Announces 10% Assessment Cap on Co-ops, Condos. “New York City Finance Commissioner David M. Frankel confronted his critics yesterday at a City Council Hearing in May, announcing he was placing a 10% cap on tax assessment increases for co-op and condo properties in the five Boroughs.” Read about it at Habitat.
  • AGs, Banks near $60B deal on Foreclosures. “America’s biggest mortgage servicers are closing in on a deal with federal and state officials to settle some of the thorniest foreclosure problems.” Read about it in the New York Post.
  • Manhattan rents rise with room to go higher. “The Manhattan apartment rental market has been heating up for months, and second-quarter market reports released today by residential brokerages Citi Habitats and Prudential Douglas Elliman show skyrocketing rents. Now, the question is how long the rent increases will continue.”  Read about it at the Real Deal
  • Homes Dark and Lifeless, Kept by Out-of-Towners “some Manhattan neighborhoods are assuming that vacant feeling the year round, because the people who own or rent apartments there actually live somewhere else most of the time” Read about it in the New York Times

Our Q2 Manhattan Market Overview which was released Friday and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman 

  • There were 2,650 sales in the second quarter, 3.8% less than the federal-tax-credit-stimulated 2,756 sales total from the same period last year, and 10.7% more than 2,394, a seasonal uptick from the prior quarter.
  • Median sales price declined 5.5% to $850,000, the second consecutive year-over-year decline of this metric. Both average sales price and price per square foot edged 1.6% over the same period.
  • There were 8,070 active listings available at the end of the second quarter, 1.1% less than the 8,157 total in the same period a year ago, but a 6.1% seasonal increase from the 7,605 total in the first quarter.
  • The number of days between the change in the list price, if any, and contract date—known as days on market—jumped from 105 in the previous year’s second quarter, to 136 days in the same period this year.
  • The percentage difference between the listing price at time of contract and the contract price—the listing discount—fell to 3.5% from 9.1% in the prior year quarter.

 Our 2001 to 2010  Manhattan Residential Sales Trend Analysis which was released Thursday and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman

  • Price indicators show stability with mixed results
    • 2010 was second only to 2008 in both Median sales price and Average sales price  which was considered the peak of the Manhattan Market
    • Median sales price for 2010 was $880,000, 3.5% above the 2009 median sales price of $850,000 and more than double than the median sales price of
    • $430,000 in 2001
    • Average sales price rose 4.6% to $1,457,255 in 2010 from $1,393,001 in 2009
    • The key reason for the increase in these metrics was due to the shift in the mix towards larger apartment sales
      • 2009 referred to as the “year of the first time buyer”
      • Entry level apartment sales were the first to gain traction
    • Average square footage of an apartment sale in 2010 was 1375 square feet.
  • Number of sales above 10,000
    • There were 10,060 co-op and condo sales in 2010, the third highest one year total of the past decade
    • The 2010 total was 35.4% higher than 7,430 sales in 2009
    • Market conditions saw significant improvement in the second half of 2009
    • Listing inventories ended 2010 up 5.6% encouraging individuals who removed their listings in 2009 to re-enter the market
    • The monthly absorption rate declined to 8.6 months from 11.1 months and below the 9.3 month decade average
  • Days on Market, Listing Discount fall with rise in sales activity
    • Days on market fell below the 133 day average of the past decade in 2010
      • It took an average of 119 days to sell a property in 2010
      • Down sharply from 179 days in 2009
    • Listing discount fell to 7.1% from the ten year high of 10.2% in 2009 but well above the 4.2 average of the past decade

Our Q4 Survey of Manhattan co-op and condo sales which was released today and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman

 

 

 

  

Our Q3 Survey of Manhattan co-op and condo sales which was released today and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman

After three consecutive quarters of double digit declines in year-over-year inventory levels, the pace of the declines appears to be easing. There were 8,123 listings at the end of the third quarter, 3.2% less than 8,389 listings in the prior year quarter and essentially unchanged from the 8,157 listings in the prior quarter.

There were 2,661 sales in the third quarter, 19.3% above 2,230 sales in the prior year quarter, but 3.4% less than 2,756 sales in the prior quarter. With the increase in the number of sales came a shift in the mix of apartment sizes that sold during the period that skewed the price indicators higher.

There was a sharp decline in studio sales to 9% market share from 17% in the same period last year, but a 10% jump in 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom apartments.

Overall price indicators show gains over prior year and prior quarters, and were skewed higher by the shift to a more normal sales mix by size of apartment. The median sales price of a Manhattan apartment was $914,000, 7.5% higher than $850,000 in the prior year quarter and 1.7% above $899,000 in the prior quarter.

Properties sold more quickly in the quarter than during the same period last year. The average days on market—the number of days between the last change in list price, if any, to the contract date—was 125 days or 42 days faster than 167 days last year.

Sellers were more in sync with market value this quarter. Listing discount—the percentage difference between the list price at time of contract to the contract price—fell to 5.8% from 7.6% in the prior year quarter.

Today we are released Second Quarter sales  report for the Manhattan residential market.  Manhattan Market Overview Q2 2010 reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

  • The number of sales continued to rise. There were 2,756 sales in the second quarter, up 79.9% from 1,532 sales in the prior year quarter and up 15.6% from 2,384 sales in the prior quarter.
  • The number of sales was the highest in 2 years and higher than the 2,411 quarterly average of the past decade.
  • Available listing inventory continued to decline. There were 8,157 listings in the second quarter, 13% below the 9,378 listing total of the prior year quarter, but up 1.6% from the prior quarter total of 8,027. The total level of available inventory was in sync with the 8,037 listing inventory average of the past five years.
  • Price indicators remained stable over the year. Price per square foot was $1,051 per square foot in the second quarter, essentially unchanged from $1,056 per square foot in the prior year quarter and up 1.2% from $1,038 per square foot in the prior quarter.
  • The other price indicators increased due to the 9.7% rise in square footage to 1,364 square feet, up from 1,243 square feet in the prior year quarter.
  • Properties sold much more quickly in the quarter. The average days on market—thenumber of days between the last list price change, if any, to the contract date—fell to 105 days from 162 days in the prior year quarter.
  • Sellers tested buyers this quarter by pricing properties higher, but were met with resistance.
  • Listing discount—the percentage difference between the list price at time of contract and the contract price—increased to 9.1% from 7.8% in the same period last year.

Rejoice fashionistas, spring is definitely in the air! New stores, new concepts and new celebrations abound. It’s time for spring cleaning; make room for the fabulous new offerings coming soon to an avenue near you.

Faith Hope Consolo, Chairman, Retail Leasing and Sales Division
of Prudential Douglas Elliman recently published the shop ’til you drop Spring 2010 New York Retail Leasing Report

Recently we reported the Manhattan 10-Year Townhouse Market Report for 2000-2009.   The 10-year sales trend analysis summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

  • There were 402 Manhattan townhouses listed for sale at the end of 2009, 24.2% below the 530 listings available in 2008. Listing inventory was similar to the levels seen ten years ago reflecting the fixed nature of turn-of-the-century housing stock.
  • The 2009 median sales price of a Manhattan townhouse—defined as a 1-5 family residence that can be delivered vacant—fell 31.9% from the record set in 2008 to $3,400,000 from $4,995,000.
  • There were 149 townhouse sales in 2009, down 1.3% from 151 sales in the prior year. The average annual number of sales over the past decade was 249 sales, indicating that the number of sales over the past two years have been below trend levels.
  • The listing discount, the amount buyers and sellers have to move to agree on price, expanded to 15.3% in 2009 from 6.9% in the prior year.
  • The days on market for townhouse properties was 142 days in 2009, faster than the 155 days in 2008.
  • The decline in market conditions left more sellers “chasing the market” when setting list prices

Approximately 92,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,500 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas have been presented with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix that compare 2009 to the prior year (2008) and prior decade (2000).

  • After setting records in 2008, all three price indicators declined in 2009. This is the first time that any of the three price indicators have posted year-over-year declines since 1996.
  • The 2009 median sales price of a Manhattan apartment was $850,000, down 11% from the record set in 2008 at $955,000
  • Manhattan housing prices have doubled over the past decade. Price per square foot increased 105.6% to $1,073 from $522 in 2000.
  • There were 7,430 sales in 2009, 27.9% fewer than were sold in 2008. However, the release of pent-up demand from the first half of 2009 caused the second half to see a surge in sales activity.
  • The annualized pace of sales in the second half of 2009 was 9,400 units, higher than the 9,178 average annual number of sales over the last decade.
  • There were 6,851 listings on the market at the end of 2009, 24.6% less than 9,081 listings in 2008, which was the highest level of inventory in the past decade. The 2009 inventory level was in line with the 6,860 average annual inventory level since 2000.
  • Over the past decade, the Manhattan condo market has surpassed the co-op market in sales, beginning with a 40% market share and ending with a 54% market share. The gain was primarily due to the addition of new development sales to the housing stock.

The 2000-2009 Manhattan Market Report relaeased today and summarized above was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.