Archive for Geezer Rants

Consumer Confidence Indez

All real estate is local.

As I previously discussed here, the S&P/Case-Shiller indices are virtually useless for tracking Manhattan residential sales. Case-Shiller does not include sales of co-op and condo apartments even though those property types account for 99% of what is sold in Manhattan.

The data through August 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller  Home Price Indices show that the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s reading. This marks approximately seven months of improved readings in these statistics, beginning in early 2009.

This perceived improvement of real estate prices, if you can call smaller declines an improvement, is as irrelevant now as when I reported the uselessness of the S&P/Case-Shiller doom-and-gloom report back in June .

What I do believe is significant is that the Consumer Confidence Index as reported today by The Conference Board today dropped to 47.7 from a revised 53.4 in September.  A measure of employment availability deteriorated to a 26-year low.

Unemployment in New York City (specifically in Manhattan) is very high. This fact, in addition to the seasonal slowdown in residential sales, will cause price reductions on properties where the sellers are motivated to move.

In an otherwise interesting article about the trendy set born between 1946 and 1964 flocking back to Manhattan in record numbers, the NY Daily News could have aroused the ire of many members of the Baby Boom generation.

The problem?  A casual opening sentence that said those Boomers bring “plenty of gray hairs and wrinkles” to the trendy and sophisticated borough.  Even the title is somewhat unfortunate: “Oldie but goodie: Retirees, empty-nesters flock to Manhattan – and thrive.”

Here’s some tongue-in cheek advice I’d give to the NY Daily News which is cluelessly unhip regarding Boomers and the empty nest crowd:

  • Don’t even try referring to Boomers as old until you’re sure most of them are at least 80 – that will occur in about 2045. Boomers are Boomers, not oldsters!  Being ahead of your time is often good, but not when describing Boomers.”
  • 80 may be the new old.  Until then, the Boomers may consent to being referred to as middle-aged.
  • Female Boomers very rarely have gray hair, and Grecian Formula hasn’t been around since 1961 because nobody uses it.
  • Be prepared for the Botox and cosmetic industries to rain scorn upon you.  Wrinkles are not the in thing, and a multi-billion dollar industry is not going to take this sitting down.  Spending on anti-aging cosmetic products has passed $75 million a year, and has been growing at about $8 million per year since 2004.
  • Be careful – plastic surgeons and other specialists involved in anti-aging services will be launching random scalpels your way.  Dermatologists and others will do heaven-knows-what – inject you with acne, perhaps? About 60,000 U.S. docs now profit from aging services, and anti-aging medical procedures are on track to surpass $15 billion per year by 2012.

Having assured my readers that I hear you, I’m off to start on an upcoming post about why Manhattan is a Mecca for the forever young. .

Wordle 2br equal-greater compressed 1M

A "Wordle" of 2br/2bth co-ops & condos =>$1M in Manhattan

In a recent Marist poll, nearly half of Americans – 47% – said they find “whatever” most annoying.  The other sayings weren’t quite so loathed.  25% say they find “you know” most grating; 11% can’t stand “it is what it is”; 7% would like to ban “anyway” from all verbal exchanges; and 2% reported that they could do without hearing “at the end of the day.”

After reading thousands of Manhattan apartment descriptions, I have come up with my top  list of  real estate words and phrases that I find most annoying:

  1. Boasts
  2. Oversized (also ample or generous)
  3. Sun-drenched
  4. Residence
  5. Triple mint

Here’s a “finger-nails-on -the-black-board” apartment description:

This triple mint, sun drenched apartment boasts oversized windows and generous maintenance.  You must call me for the non-negotiable price, a private showing or whatever. Anyway, if you have to ask the price this residence may not be for you. You know, at the end of the day it is what it is.

Rule # 7 of  Really Simple Manhattan Real Estate (RSMRE):  Ignore the Case-Shiller Index if you are thinking about buying a coop or condo in Manhattan.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index methodology states:

The S&P/Case-Shiller indices do not sample sale prices associated with new construction, condominiums, co-ops/apartments, multi-family dwellings, or other properties that cannot be identified as single-family

Since 99% of all home sales in Manhattan are ” new construction, condominums, co-ops/apartments, multi-family dwellings”  the Index has no relevancy here.

Dr. Shiller in his June 6th article published in The New York Times reported:

HOME prices in the United States have been falling for nearly three years, and the decline may well continue for some time.

Nowhere in the article did he discuss or give a footnote on the methodology used or the property types included and,  with regard to Manhattan real estate, property types excluded.

No disclaimers or discussion of properties included or excluded on this  Bloomberg TV’s doom and gloom video report .