Archive for Real Estate Trends
Brooklyn Market Overview Q4 2009
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Today we are released fourth quarter sales for the Brooklyn residential market. Brooklyn Market Overview Q4 2009 reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
“Sales activity was elevated as purchasers sought to take advantage of improved affordability brought on by low mortgage rates, the federal tax credit and lower housing prices.”
- There were 2,093 sales in the fourth quarter, 13.4% higher than 1,846 units in the same period last year and 13.3% higher than 1,847 units in the prior quarter.
- As a result of increased sales activity, inventory declined over the same period. There were 5,439 listings available at the end of the fourth quarter, 10% below the 6,042 listings available at the end of the same period a year ago and 2.9% below the 5,600 units available at the end of the prior quarter.
- The median sales price of a Brooklyn property was $447,174 in the fourth quarter, down 8.7%
- from $490,000 in the prior year quarter and down 6.1% from $476,000 in the prior quarter.
- Days on market expanded by a month to 163 days, from 133 days in the same period last year, but was essentially unchanged from 165 days in the prior quarter.
- Listing discount—the percent spread between the list price at the time of contract and the contract price—was 6%, up from 4% in the prior year quarter and up from 5.6% in the prior quarter.
Queens Market Overview Q4 2009
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Today we are released fourth quarter sales for the Queens residential market. The Queens Market Overview Q4 2009 reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
“The fourth quarter 2009 Queens market experienced a surge in sales activity, with 55.6% more sales than during the same period a year ago. Consumers took advantage of the federal tax credit, low mortgage rates and more affordable prices. As a result of the increase in sales, listing inventory has fallen 10.6% and is at its lowest level in three years.”
- There were 4,260 sales in the fourth quarter, 55.6% more than the 2,737 sales of the prior year quarter and 52.7% more than the 2,789 sales in the prior quarter.
- Listing inventory is at its lowest level in three years. There were 8,778 properties listed for sale at the end of the fourth quarter, 10.6% below the 9,822 units listed for sale in the prior year quarter and 10.4% below the 9,797 units listed in the prior quarter.
- Prices continue to slip. Median sale price was $350,000, 7.9% below the $380,000 median sales price of the prior year quarter and 3.3% below the $362,000 median sales price of the prior quarter.
- The average days on market was 104 days, or two weeks longer than the 90 days on market in the prior year quarter.
- Listing discount, the spread between the last list price and contract price, fell to 6.1% in the fourth quarter, down from 8.7% in the prior year quarter and unchanged from the prior quarter.
Q4 Manhattan Residential Rental Report
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Recently the industry has reported data on fourth quarter rentals for the Manhattan residential market. The Q4 Manhattan Rental Market Overview reported here and summarized below was prepared by Miller Samuel for Prudential Douglas Elliman.
- Average rental price declined 4.3% to $3,789 from $3,958 the same period last year but up 0.8% from $3,759 the prior quarter.
- Rental price per square foot declined 4.6% to $47.02 per square foot from $49.30 per square foot during the same period last year, and down 1.7% from $47.84 per square foot in the prior quarter.
- Median rental price declined 9.4% to $2,900 from $3,200 in the same period last year and down 1.7% from $2,950 in the prior quarter.
- Number of rentals surged 47.5% to 2,456 units from 1,665 units in the prior year quarter.
- Listing inventory fell 21.3% to 5,225 units from 6,640 units in the prior year quarter.
- Days on market were 76 days, down from 97 days this time last year.
- Listing discount was 6.5%, down from 6.9% in the same period last year.
The reports do not account for the incentives (concessions) that tenants are frequently offered in the current market, like months of free rent or waived brokers’ fees. It is worth noting that that if those factors had been taken into consideration, rents could appear considerably lower. Perhaps as high as 10% lower.
Experts remain cautiously optimistic about this year as the unemployment rate, which has a huge impact on the rental market, remains high. ”We are looking for more of the same in the first half of 2010–stable activity and pricing,” Mr. Miller said.
Jonathan Miller’s pod cast discussing the Q4 Manhattan Market Overview can be heard here.
In addition, reporting and analysis of the Q4 Rental Market Survey were consolidated on the Miller Samuel website and shown below.
01/14/2010 PR Newswire Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
01/14/2010 Earth Times Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
01/14/2010 Business Week Manhattan Apartment Rents Drop 9.4% as City Job Losses Mount
01/14/2010 Bloomberg.com Manhattan Apartment Rents Drop 9.4% as City Job Losses Mount
01/14/2010 TheStreet.com Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
01/14/2010 The Real Deal Manhattan rental deals up in 4Q: reports
01/14/2010 Yahoo Finance Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
01/14/2010 Fox Business Prudential Douglas Elliman 4th Quarter 2009 Manhattan Rental Market Overview
In addition to the Prudential Douglas Elliman report, some of the above articles refer to the Citi Habitats Q4 Market report.
Yankees And Bronx Real Estate
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Yankees Win! NY Daily News photo
I’m not really a raving baseball fan but as long as Boston doesn’t win, I’m OK with whoever does.
John Massengale an architect and urban planner posted this brief history:
“The boss of the Yankees, George Steinbrenner, complained about parking and a perception of crime, and said he might move his team if the city didn’t build a new stadium for them. The then Mayor of the city, Rudolph Giuliani, proposed building a new stadium over a railyard on the west side of Manhattan, at a cost of $1,000,000,000.00.
The Bronx Borough President, the Honorable Fernando Ferrer, wanted to keep the Yankees in the Bronx by building what he called the Yankee Village.”
The rest is history as they say.
“The Yankees won. The world is right again,” team president Randy Levine said.
I was curious about how housing prices were doing in the Bronx since the construction of the new stadium so I visited Trulia’s Bronx Real Estate Overview
Average price per square foot for Bronx NY was $201, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last year. The median sales price for homes in Bronx NY for Jul 09 to Sep 09 was $390,000 based on 443 home sales. Compared to the same period one year ago, the median home sales price decreased 11.9%, or $52,500, and the number of home sales decreased 8.8%.
There are currently 3,048 resale and new homes in Bronx on Trulia, including 43 open houses, as well as 1,390 homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process. The average listing price for homes for sale in Bronx NY was $463,916 for the week ending Oct 28, which represents an increase of 0.7%, or $3,009, compared to the prior week. Popular neighborhoods in Bronx include Riverdale and Throgs Neck – Edgewater Park, with average listing prices of $654,112 and $456,530.
Trulia’s Heat Map and neighborhood by neighborhood residential sales details here.
Manhattan Coop and Condo Sales Report-Q3 2009
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Miller Samuel, an independent appraisal firm, and Prudential Douglas Elliman real estate today released the Manhattan Market Overview.
The report tracks the 2230 sales of coop and condo apartments that closed in the third quarter of 2009 and compares the data to second quarter sales of this year as well as the same quarter sales of 2008 thus adjusting for seasonality.
- There was a 45.6% jump in the number of sales this quarter to 2,230 sales from 1,532 sales in the prior quarter, which is well above seasonal trends. There were 16% fewer sales in the third quarter than the same period a year ago.
- The average price per square foot of a Manhattan apartment was $996, down 16.5% from the prior year quarter price per square foot of $1,193 and 5.7% below the price per square foot of $1,056 in the prior quarter.
- Listing inventory fell 4.6% to 8,389 units from 8,794 units in the prior year quarter and 10.5% from 9,378 in the prior quarter.
- The average time it took to sell a property was 167 days, more than a month longer than the 134 days on market in the prior year quarter, but up a modest 5 days from the 162 days on market of the prior quarter.
- Listing discount, which measures the spread between the listing price and the sales price at time of contract was 7.6% up from 2.6% in the prior year quarter, but down nominally from 7.8% in the prior quarter.
As the report indicates, “The number of sales tend to peak in the second quarter of each year. This is reflective of the spring selling season including demand generated from the early year Wall Street bonus season. However, the peak level of activity year to date occurred during the third quarter suggesting the seasonal housing cycle was pushed forward by three months. The unusually low level of sales activity in the first quarter of 2009 appeared to set the stage for a release of pentup demand later in the year”.
Turning the Corner Vs. Finding the bottom
“The summer surge in the number of sales was caused by a myriad of factors including mortgage rates at historic lows, the $8,000 first time buyer tax credit, increased affordability after the sharp correction in price levels, and continued evidence that the financial system was continuing to stabilize. In addition, a 24% jump in the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past 6 months resulted in an improvement in consumer confidence. Still, unemployment remains elevated, employment in the financial services sector continues to decline and unusually restrictive mortgage underwriting remains in place. Therefore, this surge in the number of sales does not appear to indicate a housing market “bottom”, but rather provides some evidence that the housing market has “turned the corner.”
How’s The Manhattan Residential Real Estate Business?
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Market musings in a Tribeca maisonette-55 Vestry Street
Wednesday evening I went to a state-of-the-market update meeting held in a duplex maisonette in the Fairchild, at 55 Vestry Street in Tribeca. Speakers included Howard Lorber - Chairman and President of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Jonathan Miller - co-founder of residential real estate appraisal firm Miller Samual (real estate market guru, blogger extraordinaire and podcaster), and Raphael DeNiro Executive Vice President; Associate Broker Prudential Douglas Elliman-Exclusive Marketing Broker for The Fairchild.
Here’s some of their thoughts and market insights:
- Real estate in Manhattan “had a run of fantastic years so if you compare everything moving forward to 2006 or 2007 you’re bound to be disappointed”.
- As the stock market goes up for a few days the phones begin to ring but when the market has a few losing days the phones become silent.
- Contract activity usually peaks in May, but because of the Lehman closing, the market took a “time out” and is 3 months out of synch-we’ve seen the peak happen in August.
- NYC traditionally lags the rest of the country in real estate downturns. This particular cycle is reminiscent of 911 when all sales dropped off then began to pick up again in January/February 2002
- Lots of all cash purchases-37% cash (usually 5-10%) 63% financed. This is a good sign that the market is turning the corner
- Inventory is down about 23% in lock-step to where it has been for the last 10 years. There is concern of “shadow inventory” being injected into the market both form new developments and sellers thinking this is the time to sell.
- First time buyers activity make the entire market feel more confident.
- Most of the “action” is weighted in the low end of the market.
- Lots of contracts below $1million have helped to erode inventory levels and prop up sales prices in that piece of the market.
Who Represents Your Best Interests When Buying A Co-op or Condo in Manhattan?
Posted by: | CommentsIf you are planning to buy or thinking about buying an apartment in New York City, it’s smart to get expert help from the beginning. Touring apartments is just the beginning; buying one is more complicated.
If you tour open houses, you’ll meet real estate agents, virtually always the seller’s agents. There are several different kinds of agents and it’s important to know the how they work.
Listing Agents
Listing (or seller’s) agents are the ones with whom the seller has listed his or her property. A seller’s agent promises to take reasonable care, provide undivided loyalty, confidentiality, full disclosure, obedience and duty to the seller. That means their top priority is to show the property in its most favorable light and negotiate the highest price and terms for the seller. In other words, the listing agent owes complete fiduciary responsibility to the seller.
Buyer’s Agent
Conversely, the buyer’s agent is engaged by the buyer to represent his or her interests. The buyer’s agent is completely motivated to make sure that you get the best possible deal. He or she negotiates the purchase of the home you want at a price and on terms most favorable to you. A buyer’s agent promises to take reasonable care, provide undivided loyalty, confidentiality, full disclosure, obedience and duty to the buyer. In other words, he owes complete fiduciary responsibility to the buyer.
Dual Agent
A real estate broker may represent both the buyer and seller if both buyer and seller give their informed consent in writing. For example, if you visit an open house, you might meet the seller’s agent as you tour the home. Should you decide to buy – or make an offer on – the property, you might ask that agent to represent you. In that case, the agent will not be able to provide the full range of fiduciary duties to both buyer and seller. The agent must explain the possible effects of dual representation, including that by consenting to the dual agency relationship the buyer and seller are both giving up their right to undivided loyalty. A buyer should carefully consider the possible consequences of a dual agency relationship before agreeing.
Dual Agent with Designated Sales Agents
If the buyer and seller provide informed consent in writing, the real estate brokerage firm may designate a sales agent to represent the buyer and another sales agent to represent the seller to negotiate the purchase and sale of the property. A designated sales agent cannot provide the full range of fiduciary duties to the buyer or seller. The designated agent must explain that like the dual agent under whose supervision they function, they cannot provide undivided loyalty.
So if you are a buyer, a listing or seller’s agent can not advocate for the best deal you can get. If the seller has an agent totally dedicated to their interest, buyers should strongly consider working with agents who are totally dedicated to ensuring that they get the best possible deal.
New York State law is crystal clear and requires disclosure regarding real estate agency relationships and the rights and obligations it creates.
As always, if you need legal, tax or other advice you should always consult with a professional in that field.
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of Using Your 401k to Buy Your First Home
Posted by: | CommentsThe combination of a tumbling stock market, where 401k holders watched the value crumble, and the decline of home prices has made it an attractive time to take the leap into buying a first home. Rather than watch their stocks, bonds, mutual funds and other investments continue to lose value, many first time buyers have cashed out all or some of their 401k and used it toward the down payment or for covering other costs.
Like any major financial decision, using a 401k to buy your first home has some good, some bad and some ugly things you need to be aware of.
The Good
• Great deals on purchases. The good news is that real estate prices have fallen to the point where you can find better deals and there’s a wider selection than in the recent past. It may even mean that you can buy a co-op or condo that you were never able to afford before the decrease in value.
• Upside appreciation. This also means that when real estate values return to normal that you’ll probably profit when you sell (assuming you sell for more than you paid and what you owe on the mortgage).
The Bad
• Loss of income. When you decrease the value of your 401k account, the lower principal balance means you have less money from which to earn interest, dividends and appreciation.
• Depletion of nest egg. Since the purpose of a 401k is to provide income for your retirement years, when you spend this money now, it’s not going to be available for tomorrow.
The Ugly
• Tax penalties. The ugliest part of early withdrawal from a 401k is that good old Uncle Sam hits you with tax penalties can really hurt—and it diminishes the amount you wind up with when you make a withdrawal.
• Fees. The investment firm that manages your 401k may also charge you a penalty or fee for liquidating the investments early, which may leave you with even less money than you anticipated.
Queens Residential Sales Report For Q2 2009
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Miller Samuel, an independent appraisal firm, and Prudential Douglas Elliman real estate today released the Queens Market Overview.
This report of Queens residential sales analyzes the 2129 sales of condos, coops and 1-3 family properties that closed in the second quarter of 2009 and compares the data to first quarter sales of this year as well as the same quarter sales of 2008 thus adjusting for seasonality.
The luxury market subcategory was also included in the analysis and represents the top 10 percent of all coop, condo and 1-3 family sales.
