Faith Hope Consolo, Chairman, Retail Leasing and Sales Division
of Prudential Douglas Elliman recently published the shop ’til you drop Spring 2010 New York Retail Leasing Report

“Sales activity was elevated as purchasers sought to take advantage of improved affordability brought on by low mortgage rates, the federal tax credit and lower housing prices.”

• There were 2,093 sales in the fourth quarter, 13.4% higher than 1,846 units in the same period last year and 13.3% higher than 1,847 units in the prior quarter.
• As a result of increased sales activity, inventory declined over the same period. There were 5,439 listings available at the end of the fourth quarter, 10% below the 6,042 listings available at the end of the same period a year ago and 2.9% below the 5,600 units available at the end of the prior quarter.
• The median sales price of a Brooklyn property was $447,174 in the fourth quarter, down 8.7%
• from $490,000 in the prior year quarter and down 6.1% from $476,000 in the prior quarter.
• Days on market expanded by a month to 163 days, from 133 days in the same period last year, but was essentially unchanged from 165 days in the prior quarter.
• Listing discount—the percent spread between the list price at the time of contract and the contract price—was 6%, up from 4% in the prior year quarter and up from 5.6% in the prior quarter.

“The fourth quarter 2009 Queens market experienced a surge in sales activity, with 55.6% more sales than during the same period a year ago. Consumers took advantage of the federal tax credit, low mortgage rates and more affordable prices. As a result of the increase in sales, listing inventory has fallen 10.6% and is at its lowest level in three years.”

• There were 4,260 sales in the fourth quarter, 55.6% more than the 2,737 sales of the prior year quarter and 52.7% more than the 2,789 sales in the prior quarter.
• Listing inventory is at its lowest level in three years. There were 8,778 properties listed for sale at the end of the fourth quarter, 10.6% below the 9,822 units listed for sale in the prior year quarter and 10.4% below the 9,797 units listed in the prior quarter.
• Prices continue to slip. Median sale price was $350,000, 7.9% below the $380,000 median sales price of the prior year quarter and 3.3% below the $362,000 median sales price of the prior quarter.
• The average days on market was 104 days, or two weeks longer than the 90 days on market in the prior year quarter.
• Listing discount, the spread between the last list price and contract price, fell to 6.1% in the fourth quarter, down from 8.7% in the prior year quarter and unchanged from the prior quarter.

Yes, Halloween is Saturday, so it’s time to finalize your Trick-or-Treat plan if you are old enough to give out candy, under 13 or the parent of same.

Here are some tips for celebrating All Hallows Eve in the city:

• If you welcome visits from all the little superheroes, pirates, witches and bumble bees in the building, make sure you’re apartment number is included on the list that should be posted in the lobby of your building.

• If your building doesn’t have such a list, suggest one to the super.  It ensures that those who don’t welcome visitors won’t be disturbed.

• If you really don’t care how cute little Sara is going to be in her princess outfit, leave a supply of candy with your doorman with “Happy Halloween from 11A” taped to the side of the bowl.  He’ll hand them out – and enjoy a few of the mini Snickers himself.  (Be sure to mention it if you want your bowl back in the morning.)

• No doorman?  Want to participate but don’t want to spend the evening traipsing back and forth to the front door?  Leave a container of candy outside the door.  Remember to replenish the offering as needed as long as your budget allows.

• If you live in a walkup, take pity on the frustration this causes for kids and parents – put a sign on your door to announce whether you are a treater.  You might try to post a lobby list and let everyone add themselves at the appropriate spot, but messing with the list may be irresistible for kids between 13 and 30 (possibly 40 in some cases of arrested development – you know who you are).

• Make sure to give kids only store-bought, individually-wrapped candy, since wary parents will toss anything else.  Trick-or-Treaters’ faves include chocolate bars, Skittles, and Tootsie Roll Pops.  Kids today often are not fond of candy corn – yet another sign that times change.  No one but dentists gives sugarless gum.  It’s only once a year!

• In the process of shedding pounds or watching your weight?  Buy only treats you dislike enough that you really, really won’t eat them, and be sure all extras get dropped off in a child household or taken to work on Monday.

Parents, here is some more information on how to Trick or Treat in New York City.

Happy Halloween!

The end of a quarter brings a blizzard of Residential Sales and Rental Market Reports; followed by a spurt of press coverage spinning and analyzing the reports. But here’s a report that’s different.

New York Retail Leasing Activity Report created by Faith Consolo Chairman of  Prudential Douglas Elliman’s Leasing and Sales Division.

The Faith Report reads like a who’s who of luxury retailers.

Faith believes that “New York City luxury retail remains resilient, with new entries and expansions paving the way for a phenomenal fall.”

From Madison Avenue to 5th Avenue and the Upper East Side,  across Central Park on the Upper West Side down to Union Square, the West Village, Soho, Nolita, Tribeca and to the Lower East Side, the Faith Report alerts you to the newest digs for your favorite designers and other trend-setting retailers.

Real Estate is Hyper-Local

The Case-Shiller Index reporting on residential  property sales for the period of March, April, and May was published yesterday.

As noted in last month’s Geezer Rant,  because the index excludes price data on new developments, condos and co-ops,   the Index is not applicable to 99% of residential sales in Manhattan.

It’s interesting to note that the Wall Street Journal commented on this fact albeit  in the second page and 22 paragraphs into the article:

The Survey doesn’t track condominium or cooperative apartment sales, so it doesn’t take into account the majority of housing stock on New York City.

To get a better picture of the Manhattan real estate market in the second quarter of 2009, check out the various reports and press commentary published and discussed at the beginning of this month.

The Q2 Manhattan Market Overview prepared by  Miller Samuel, an independent appraisal firm,  and Prudential Douglas Elliman real estate, differentiates sales by the four major regions of Manhattan:  East Side, West Side, Downtown and Uptown. In addition to accounting for seasonal adjustments, the report also breaks out sales by new developments and resales–both very important factors in reporting median and average prices so that like sales are properly compared.

Even with that degree of Manhattan specificity, there remain neighborhoods within those regions can have quite different sales price results. For example the East Side consists of at least  seven neighborhoods including Beekman, Kips Bay, Murray Hill, Sutton Place, Carnegie Hill and Yorkville. Then there are “corridors” like the 5th Avenue and Park Avenue.

Within Manhattan there are areas, neighborhoods, sub neighborhoods corridors etc. Within those areas are specific blocks, specific buildings with specific views from specific floors or amenities which may affect property prices. Think about  a 5th Avenue apartment on a high floor facing Central Park vs.  an apartment in the same building on a low floor with no park views.

But  as Barry Ritholtz pointed out in his blog The Big Picture the “media coverage was mostly gushing” (see below),  the point is that all real estate is local, very very local and even hyper-local. Caution should be taken when extrapolating any national reports’ data  to any specific city or  town.

Front Page WSJ: Home Prices Rise Across U.S.Home prices in major U.S. cities registered the first monthly gain in nearly three years, according to a new report that provided fresh evidence that the severe U.S. housing downturn could be easing. Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices in 20 metropolitan areas, rose 0.5% for the three-monthperiod ending in May, compared with the three months ending in April. It marked the index’s first increase after 34 straight months of decline, and came after a variety of housing indicators has shown glimmers of hope for the past several months

Front Page NYT: Recovery Signs in Housing Market Stir Some Hope

After a plunge lasting three years, houses have finally become cheap enough to lure buyers. That, in turn, is stabilizing prices, generating hope that the real estate market is beginning to recover. Eight cities, including Chicago, Cleveland, Denver and San Francisco, showed price increases in May, up from four in April and one in March, according to data released Tuesday. Two other cities, Charlotte, N.C., and New York, were flat.

Bloomberg.com - U.S. Home Prices Rise for First Time in Three Years

Home prices posted their first monthly gain in three years in May, a gauge of values in 20 major U.S. cities showed, reinforcing signs of stabilization in a market hammered by the worst slump since the 1930s. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index rose 0.5 percent from April, the first monthly gain since July 2006 and biggest since May of that year, the group said today in New York. The measure was down 17.1 percent from May 2008, less than forecast and the smallest year-over-year drop in nine months.

CNN/Money – Home prices up for 1st time in 3 years

Index of 20 major cities rises on a monthly basis for the first time since July 2006, hinting that the worst of the declines may be over. The value of U.S. homes grew on a monthly basis in May for the first time in nearly three years, according to 20-city index released Tuesday. The month-over-month increase was 0.5%, according to the report from financial data company Standard & Poor’s and economists Case-Shiller. It was the first increase in the monthly index since July 2006.

Reuters - Home prices up for first time in three years

U.S. single-family home prices rose in May from April, the first monthly increase in nearly three years, suggesting prices may be stabilizing, according to Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price indexes on Tuesday.

Miller Samuel

This report of Queens residential sales analyzes the 2129 sales of condos, coops and 1-3 family properties that closed in the second quarter of 2009 and compares the data to first quarter sales of this year as well as the same quarter sales of 2008 thus adjusting for seasonality.

The luxury market subcategory was also included in the analysis and represents the top 10 percent of all coop, condo and 1-3 family sales.

The market report shows that rental inventory year-over year was up 28.8% , there was a 17.5% year over year decline in rental price per square foot and a 58.3% decline in the number of new rentals. Interestingly, the average rental price in Q2 09 vs. Q2 08 shows a decrease of only .9%,

At the end of a very interesting article written by Jonathan Miller for the Huffington Post,  he confirms what I’ve seen is that there are a large number of first time buyers out there, and contracts are being written (and signed).

“One of the key culprits for the rental price and activity drop was the record low mortgage rates in the spring, which pulled many first time buyers out of the rental market (if they could qualify under the banks newly-found underwriting conservatism). Combine that shift with rising unemployment and there is less activity and downward pressure on rental prices.

One could therefore argue that the rental market is a leading indicator for the purchase market, at least in Manhattan. When the economy improves and the pace of unemployment begins to ease, the number of rentals should begin to rise, eventually followed by sales activity.”

Manhattan Market Report Q2 2009

Miller Samuel, an independent appraisal firm,  and Prudential Douglas Elliman real estate today released the Manhattan Market Overview. The report tracks the 1532 sales of coop and condo apartments that closed in the second quarter of 2009 and compares the data to first quarter sales of this year as well as the same quarter sales of 2008 thus adjusting for seasonality.

In addition, the  report separates and compares median sale prices of resale properties ($725,000) with the median sale prices of new developments ($1,069,162). This is important because new developments represent the state of mind of buyers who signed contracts up to 18 months ago. Other stats include:

• Listing inventory grew a modest 8.7% over the same period last year but fell 10.2%  from the prior quarter. This reflects the restrained release of “shadow” inventory, which include new development units at or near completion not currently offered for sale, and “casual sellers” opting to wait until market conditions improve before listing their properties.
• There were 50.3% fewer sales in the second quarter as compared to the same period last year as weaker economic conditions and more difficulties for many to obtain a mortgage made it more difficult to buy an apartment.
• The average amount of time to sell and apartment is now 162 days. Twenty seven days longer than the same period last year as raising inventory creates increased competition among sellers.
• The listing discount, which is the difference in price between the last asking price and the selling price, was 7.8% was down from 12.4% in the first quarter of this year but up from 3.6% in the prior year quarter.
• Both studio and 1 bedroom coop apartments saw no change in median sales prices from the prior quarter at $365,000 and $580,000 respectively.
• Two bedroom coop apartments had a decline of 4.4% to $1, 075, 000.
• Both 3 and 4 bedroom coop apartments declined by 41.8% to $1,995,000 and 53% to $4,200,000 respectively
• The overall median sale price a Manhattan condo fell below $1,000,000 for the first time since the first quarter of 2007.

Other reports published today include Corcoran and Property Shark, Brown Harris Stevens and Street Easy.

Other commentary supplied by The Huffington Post,  The New York Observer, ForexYard, CNNMoney and The New York Times

Crain’s City Facts report finds that Big Apple denizens are highly productive on the job, and prefer cheap thrills.

New Yorkers are neurotic overachievers who care a lot about how they look and have a penchant for inexpensive entertainment.

So say the statistics, anyway. This year’s City Facts, Crain’s New York’s annual look at New York by the numbers, shows a city and its denizens slowly being transformed by the recession – but perhaps not so fast or so dramatically as some had feared.

Among the facts uncovered by the Crain’s research team:

•New York workers are the most productive in the nation by a wide margin: 37% more productive than the average American worker, as measured by dollars produced in 2007. The margin may narrow as the recession deepens and Wall Street profits fall, but the state bears out one of the fundamental qualities of New Yorkers: their ambition.

•All that work comes with a price. New Yorkers are judged to be the third most neurotic people in the nation, say professors who theorize that particular geographies have particular personalities. Perhaps adding to New Yorkers’ stress level are the taxes and regulations that caused another set of professors to rank our state dead last when it comes to personal freedom.

•Putting their ambition on display, legions of laid-off New Yorkers have been starting their own businesses, but they shouldn’t expect an easy road. Despite the federal government’s efforts to resuscitate the financial market, small business lending is on track to decline again in 2009.

•New Yorkers helped pay for their hometown team, the Yanks, to build a spanking new stadium and then, thumbing their nose at the higher ticket prices, have been skipping the games. The Yankees are selling a lower percentage of their home game seats in their new, smaller stadium this year.

•New York is known as a city of excess, but New Yorkers actually spend less of their income on entertainment than Americans, perhaps because just living here is entertaining enough.

•The recession is likely heightening New Yorkers’ tendency to seek out low or no-cost entertainment: Circulation at the New York City Public Library is up 12% this year to 22 million.

•While fashion-first New Yorkers don’t necessarily pony up for big nights out, they do spend more on clothes and personal care than their national counterparts.

•Despite the aforementioned taxes and regulations, New York City remains the nation’s biggest corporate headquarters city, beating Texas up-and-comer Houston by a wide margin (43 to 25 headquarters of Fortune 500 companies).

•New York remains the nation’s business capital – but that may not be saying much. After years of slow growth, the government, health care and education sectors make up a full third of all the jobs in New York City

See the full slide show here